June 15th Severe Weather Outlook & Discussion

June 15th Severe Weather Outlook & Discussion
As has been the case and will continue to be the case in the central part of the country will be the Heat and the Humidity. Temperatures are essentially going to range from 70 in the north to 100 across areas of the south.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/15/00/NAM_221_2012061500_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew points will once again be in the 60s to around 70 across the region. Again this will be an adding factor with the already warm to hot temperatures in place..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/15/00/NAM_221_2012061500_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE or INSTABILITY
Convective Potential Energy across the region will be in the range of 500 to about 3500.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/15/00/NAM_221_2012061500_F18_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX will be from about 0 to negative 10 across the severe region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/15/00/NAM_221_2012061500_F18_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
The greatest SHEAR as you see here on this image will be north of the Texas region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/15/00/NAM_221_2012061500_F18_SHRM_500_MB.png
With SHEAR values of 30-50 knots across the rest of the region..In NC TX..SHEAR is not really supportive of any organized severe .Northwest TX near the Panhandle may be a different story..
Looking at the ENERGY HELICITY INDEX we do see regions that are above 1 (Remember 1 indicates super cells likely) ..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/15/00/NAM_221_2012061500_F18_EHI_3000_M.png
Greatest HELICITY is also in the same general areas..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/15/00/NAM_221_2012061500_F18_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
So lets give a breakdown here of where we think Tornado's could be a possibility.. NW TX, Western OK, Western KS, Eastern Co, Central and West Nebraska along with South Dakota. This is where we will place the tornado potential zone at around 2-5%.
At the surface low pressure over SE Colorado
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
From this extends a cold front off to the NE to a low pressure up in Canada. This front is going to become stationary.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif
This front will be the focus of the severe weather potential. The main potentials will be winds and large hail but we do have the tornado potential for the areas that are listed above. For the most part anything that is in TX outside the area mentioned above will be Isolated...
It will be nice for majority of the country if the winter of 2013 and how it looks now comes to fruition especially for those areas that have been so HOT!