June 21st Severe Weather Outlook

June 21st Severe Weather Outlook
We talked about how the heat would be increasing across the east and it did just that yesterday.. Here in Allentown PA it was 95 degrees. Today is going to be another Hot day across the east again with temperatures in the 90-100 degree range..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to this we are talking about dew points in the 60-70 degree range so your real feel temperatures or heat index is going to be between 100-110
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE across the region is 500 to about 3000 depending on where you reside..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX is 0 to about negative 5 across the region
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
The one ingredient that is lacking however on the NAM is SHEAR which shows only about 25-30 knots..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY is not a factor either for anything tornado related..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX is also not really a factor...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
At the surface we are dealing with a cold front that will be slowly moving towards the east..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
Across Maine a warm front may essentially serve as the trigger in that region. Over all we are not expecting a big severe day but more or less "pop up isolated thunderstorms of which some could be severe with winds