Discussion of Severe Weather Parameters.. TEMPERATURES will continue to be very warm across the severe zone with temperatures in the 70-90 degree range..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/07/00/NAM_221_2012060700_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. DEW POINTS will be in the 60s mainly across the area with some areas in the upper 50s..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/07/00/NAM_221_2012060700_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. CAPE or INSTABILITY is 500 to about 3500 across the severe zone..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/07/00/NAM_221_2012060700_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png ...LIFT INDEX is 0 to about negative 8 across the region.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/07/00/NAM_221_2012060700_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png... SHEAR is about 30-45 knots across the area..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/07/00/NAM_221_2012060700_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png .. ENERGY HELICITY INDEX http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/07/00/NAM_221_2012060700_F24_EHI_3000_M.png ..Kind of widespread across the general severe zone area ..HELICITY is generally about 300 or less (very small area) and greatest is actually across the Canadian border..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/07/00/NAM_221_2012060700_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. Any where in the severe zone we are going to place a 2% chance of a tornado. Now of course this is not a very high chance... with the greatest chance from Nebraska south.. The main threats will be Wind and Hail... http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif The water vapor image shows a shortwave trough that is moving across the great basin region and should continue to press east Northeastwards . By 18 Z a frontal system with a surface cyclone should be located from NE to SW with one area of low pressure over North Dakota and another one located over Wyoming . It will be this surface frontal system and ejecting shortwave trough that will be the trigger for the severe weather potential today..
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