June 18th Severe Weather Outlook ..

June 18th Severe Weather Outlook ..
Alright we have two images posted here. First one is the current radar which shows some severe storms ..but mainly heavy rain that is moving off to the east.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
At the surface we are looking at a low pressure over southern Canada with another low over south Dakota and a warm front extending from that low pressure area. This warm front is slowly going to make its way east and NE.. It will be this frontal system that will be responsible for the severe weather potential ..
We want to stress that there is no real incoming trough for the day on Monday. The area is actually underneath an Upper Level ridge...
So lets look at the Severe Weather Parameters to get an idea of what we could be anticipating..
As has been the case over the past several days temperatures are going to continue to be on the warmer side to hot side with the coolest across the north in the 60s to the 90s pretty much elsewhere..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/18/00/NAM_221_2012061800_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to the warm to hot temperatures it is going to continue to be on the sticky side with dew points in the 60-70 range
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/18/00/NAM_221_2012061800_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE or Instability
Convective Potential Energy is 500 to about 3500. Here is hours 18,21,24
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/18/00/NAM_221_2012061800_F18_CAPE_SURFACE.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/18/00/NAM_221_2012061800_F21_CAPE_SURFACE.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/18/00/NAM_221_2012061800_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX
The lift in the atmosphere will be 0 to about negative 10
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/18/00/NAM_221_2012061800_F18_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
There is plenty of shear incoming across the region with up to 60 knots being shown..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/18/00/NAM_221_2012061800_F18_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY we are looking at about 300-350
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/18/00/NAM_221_2012061800_F18_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
ENERGY HELICITY looks to be as high as 5.00
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/18/00/NAM_221_2012061800_F18_EHI_3000_M.png
The EHI in place would suggest that Wisconsin and MI could have tornadic potential. We are going to place a tornado zone in these regions but there are several things that are working against it as well..
First and the reason why we posted the radar is the moisture that is going to be moving across in the overnight hours.This MCS has lost the daytime heating so it is starting to lose its gusto and should be turning into a mainly heavy rain scenario.
So how soon and quick does this linger across the area and how much cloud cover remains in place to limit sunshine and day time heating?
The other point is the greatest HELICITY is not really lined up with the greatest EHI. Then there is the question of how far north does the warm front make it? And reality we are lacking any kind of serious temperature drop as well.. So with this all above we are going to go with a 5% tornado zone across the area we mentioned above. Outside that region we will be looking at winds and or hail.