June 20th 2012 Severe Weather Outlook

June 20th 2012 Severe Weather Outlook
Well the west is going to be turning cooler while further to the east things begin to go under the boiler as far as temperatures are concerned. Quite a contrast in temperatures with the west in the 60s-70s.. and in the 90 to 100 degree range in the east.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to the warm to hot temperatures .. the air is going to be sticky and humid with dew points in the 60-70 degree range...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE is going to be between 500 and about 2500. The greatest CAPE ironically enough is going to be across the Northeast however..in the NE we are lacking any moisture so we are not including the NE in any type of severe zone. It is completely possible with the day time heat that there could be an "isolated" storm but with no real evidence of moisture in place ..the parameters like CAPE will not really matter!
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT Index is going to be 0 to negative 8 across the severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR
Wind shear across the severe zone is going to be in the 40-60 knot range category.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY is up to about 500-550
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Essentially it looks like a squall line in place with the EHI above 1 .
Looking at the surface ..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
Current surface map shows a low pressure over the south Dakota region with a warm front extending to the Northeast from the low and a cold front extending southwest from the low pressure.
The low over South Dakota is going to make its way to the east northeast and into southern Canada to the north/northwest of Lake Superior and this is going to allow the cold front to slowly move east as the low lifts northeast. It is this cold front that will be responsible for the severe weather. Since we will be looking at essentially storms in a squall line and with the EHI and Helicity along that squall line we are going to go with a general 2 % Tornado zone anywhere along that squall line..