June 28th Severe Weather Outlook
First of all let me start this off by saying in the east it is going to become much warmer today and in the central part of the USA and in some of the severe zone it is going to be down right HOT. (That may be an understatement)..
Temperatures are going to be from 80 (coolest) to about 110 degrees.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Folks this by itself is some serious heat and we can not stress enough to keep yourself in Air Conditioning and avoid being out doors if possible. If you must go outside make sure that you have water on you and keep yourself hydrated. Same would go for your pets .
In addition it will be very humid with dew points in the 60s and 70s.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Now..we think for the majority of the day that the region is going to be CAPPED and the severe will probably end up occurring later in the evening and in the overnight period.
The Parameters in place such as CAPE are pretty excellent with 500 to as much as 4000
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX is from 0 to about negative 12 so we have decent lift in the atmosphere..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR looks to be from 30-50 knots...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
ENERGY HELICITY is actually off the hook with locations to 6.00
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Some locations of HELICITY are above 300 but they are isolated area...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
At the surface we have a cold front working its way to the SE from the NW..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif
Once again we think the problem will be that there will pretty much be a CAP in place during the day and a lack of moisture. However if this CAP were to break we could be talking about tornadic potential mainly in Iowa east to Ohio. To be on the safe side in case the CAP does break..we are going to go with a 2% in that area...
These are the precipitation maps off the NAM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06018.gif 2 PM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06024.gif 8 PM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06030.gif 2 AM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06036.gif 8 AM
Now remember that the images indicate what has fallen by that time period. So the image for 18 Z means the precipitation falls between 8 AM and 2 PM etc..
This is the GFS for the same time periods..
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06018.gif 2PM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06024.gif 8 PM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06030.gif 2 AM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06036.gif 8 AM
So again you can see not much moisture shown to work with during the day but the threat looks to come in in the late evening time period and overnight. This may turn out to be a good thing with the parameters that are other wise in place..
We will be around from about noon on all day to provide coverage....
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