June 11th Severe Weather Outlook
Temperatures across the region are going to be another warm to hot day from 70 to in the 100's depending on where you are located in the severe zone.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/11/00/NAM_221_2012061100_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to it being warm and hot it will also be humid and muggy with Dew points in the 60-70 range.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/11/00/NAM_221_2012061100_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE or Instability across the region is from about 1000 to as much as 4000
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/11/00/NAM_221_2012061100_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX is 0 to negative 14 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/11/00/NAM_221_2012061100_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR across the region is 40-50 knots..which is sufficient for severe potential..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/11/00/NAM_221_2012061100_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY is about 150 to about 350 across the region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/11/00/NAM_221_2012061100_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
ENERGY HELICITY index is really pretty extreme on the NAM...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/11/00/NAM_221_2012061100_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
We are going to put a 2-5% tornado chance in Northeast TX into ARK and across OK...This is where the highest ENERGY HELICITY is located allocated with the greatest SHEAR..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif
Low pressure is anticipated to be over Wisconsin and trailing from this low pressure is a cold front that trails to the south/south west to another area of low pressure over TX. From the low pressure area in TX a dry line will extend to the south west. It will be this frontal system that will be the culprit responsible for the severe weather across the region.
At this point and time it looks as though all the worst of the severe should stay to the north of Texas as moisture return is lacking until around 00z. In that area between 00z and 6 Z is when moisture should start to occur in the area. This should mean severe will be less likely due to losing the day time heating .
As always any severe storms will cause heavy rainfall across the area and winds and hail in addition to the tornado potential mentioned above.
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