June 19th Severe Weather Outlook

June 19th Severe Weather Outlook
Well, if it seems like we are repeating a broken record..essentially we are repeating a broken record when it comes to the central part of the US with temperatures once again going to be on the warm to hot side with 70s to 90s across the region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew Points will once again be in the 60-70 range so again we are not only talking about warm temperatures but we are also talking about it being muggy or humid as well..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE or Instability we are looking at between 500-3500 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT Index is about 0 to negative 10 again depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Impressive SHEAR at 60-80 knots across the north but very meager in the NE region with only around 25-40 knots
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY if the NAM is to be believed is as high as 800
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F21_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
ENERGY HELICITY as high as 6 again if the NAM is to be believed..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_EHI_3000_M.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F21_EHI_3000_M.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Now lets look at the surface...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
Warm front has already moved thru most of upper Michigan ..and a cold front is currently into eastern Upper Michigan...which then runs to a low pressure over the Nebraska/Dakota border area. This cold front is going to move its way towards the east southeast...so it will be across Eastern Upper MI by 8 AM in the morning...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif
Low pressure at that point will be over south central Dakotas... This front is going to essentially stall across the area and the western part of the front will lift north again as a warm front..
The problem is while we have some off the wall parameters on the NAM when we look at the surface maps we seem to notice something..
For example here is 18 Z or 2 PM Tuesday Afternoon
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06018.gif
And here is 00z wed which is 8 PM Tuesday evening...
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06024.gif
Now what you see here is if you are located in Upper MI for example..You have some off the wall parameters but you are lacking any moisture..
And you can see the GFS is not all that much different from the NAM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06018.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06024.gif
So we are going to with the parameters in place go with a 5% tornado zone mainly into the Wisconsin area back into the Dakotas region... and perhaps a 2 % zone back into Northern /NE Nebraska..
If you are outside the fore mentioned areas then your severe threats would be winds and or hail. The greatest Severe threat would be to the N/NW of the low pressure area in the warm sector...
We will be monitoring the condition all day long across the severe zone starting around noon EST..