The above are visible image and water vapor image of 96 L. Right now the system is not very impressive. It does have a high chance of developing over the next 48 hours . The question is whether or not this system can over come the shear in place.
Generally when you have a cyclone developing you want a anti cyclone to be right over top of it. This is not the case..
This feature right now is displaced far to the Southwest. At the present time the GOM is currently covered by wind shear of 10 knots to as high as 50 knots. Unlike Severe thunderstorms which need wind shear to develop..WIND shear is not good for developing tropical systems.
There are a few other problems that this system is looking at . Presently the Upper level divergence and lower level convergence for this system is not that favorable.
Still yet another issue that has to be overcome is we are dealing with a very broad area of circulation. You can see this looking at the vorticity.
Keep in mind the broader and more elongated a system is the longer it will take to spin up a circulation center.
All guidance pretty much agrees on this developing into the next named Tropical system. The question becomes where does this track to after it does develop?
Unfortunately, until we have a center of circulation it pretty much is up in the air. Anywhere from Florida to TX is fair game for the potential of this tropical system. We do feel it should develop within the next 48 hrs. and get classified.
Once this develops that circulation center the models will be able to get a better handle on where this will end up heading.
Interests along the gulf coast should stay tuned . Right now the system does not look the greatest but this is more then likely due to the diurnal minimum taking place…
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