June 22nd Severe Weather Outlook..
Right off the back we are going to start this off by saying we are not overly impressed with severe weather chances today. There are a couple reasons one of which we alluded to earlier this evening.
1. Severe weather reports today (21st) were rather few and far between or for a better word they were lacking.
2. Would be the timing of the front... By 2 Am the front is already going to be making its way across Western PA...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
This should mean that the front would cross or approach the eastern side between 12 Z (8am) and 18 Z (2 PM) .. With this being the case this would not allow much time for daytime heating to be added to the scenario and we can see this when looking at the NAM and it showing the temperatures at 18 Z (2 PM) cooler then they were the 21st..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Despite this being the case it is still going to be a warm, sticky, hot day with dew points in the 60-70 degree range...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
We have decent Convective Potential Energy across the region (CAPE) with 500-3000
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F21_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX ranges from about 0 to negative 6
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F21_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
A better Parameter then yesterday will be the SHEAR in that it is marginal to decent with at least 35 knots
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY is pretty much lacking across the area...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
The ENERGY HELICITY INDEX is pretty much in the same category-lacking with just a small pocket across East Central PA into or just west of NYC
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
We think any threats from severe weather will come in the form of Winds in excess of 65 MPH as height falls begin to overspread the region. With PWAT values high another potential to keep an eye out for would be heavy monsoonal type rainfall where ever storms can manage to fire up!
The one good thing about this cold front is it will indeed be breaking the heat.
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