Tropical Storm Debby Update

Lets start off by looking at the current NHC update for 1:00 AM CDT

.DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
1:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 24
Location: 26.8°N 87.3°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

And the expected track with NHC

They really do not show any due North movement as is occurring on their expected track but rather a NW and then almost directly west movement.

Interestingly enough we find the following in guidance..

At the most here we find about 3 tracks that would support a more western track but only 2 of the three support a virtual due west .. Lets look at some more models..

The GFS

The GGEM

The UKMET

As you can see MAJORITY of the guidance indicates more along the lines of anywhere from LA to Florida seems to be the target zone.

Steering currents show that Debby is essentially trapped between two ridges. A ridge to the Northwest and a ridge to the east.. So this is why we are seeing a drifting motion towards the North… and you can see in the time that we posted the image above that the ridge or high pressure has only strengthened..

Finally the ECM has come in and we see the following on the ECM..

Compare this to 12 Z..

Major shift to the NE..

So with the overwhelming support of the guidance, the strength of the ridging in place ..we feel that Tropical Storm Debby will be restricted to a slow North/ Northeast movement and that anywhere from LA to the Western Panhandle of Florida will feel the impact of this system..

We feel there is very little to support the track shown by NHC above..

With the slow movement it is very possible with the warm waters over the GOM that Debby could reach hurricane status..

It would appear that all interests from LA to FL should stay tuned for the latest on Debby!