Discussion for June 4th 2012 Severe Weather Outlook.. It is going to continue to be a warm and muggy day across the areas anticipated to have severe weather potential with temperatures in the 80s and 90s..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/04/00/NAM_221_2012060400_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... DEW POINTS will also be in the 60s and 70s with the exception of the northern zone where they are only in the 50s.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/04/00/NAM_221_2012060400_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.pngINSTABILITY or CAPE is quite impressive with 500-4000 depending on where you are located.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/04/00/NAM_221_2012060400_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png ...LIFT INDEX is 0 to about negative 10 depending on where you are located..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/04/00/NAM_221_2012060400_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png... Once again there is no lack of SHEAR with 30-50 knots across the severe zones..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/04/00/NAM_221_2012060400_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png ..ENERGY HELICITY INDEX is above 1 in a good portion of the severe zone ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/04/00/NAM_221_2012060400_F24_EHI_3000_M.png.. The greatest HELICITY however is over the Northern Severe Zone..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/04/00/NAM_221_2012060400_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png At the surface we are looking at a stationary front with waves of low pressure that will be moving along the stationary front.. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif which will also bring a cold front into the region by late afternoon evening time..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif ..Across the northern zone this will be due to a strong negatively tilted trough that will be coming on shore from the Pacific Northwest region. This will involve a cold front and a strengthening area of low pressure that should move from Nevada towards Montana and it is in the warm sector where we anticipate the storms to be. In addition to the storms will be heavy rainfalls. Tornado's can not be ruled out in the Northern severe zone which we will put at 2% ..especially the closer you are to the warm front and low pressure area.. Locations such as TN/KY are really going to depend on the activity that is occurring at the present time. This could help to make the atmosphere more stable and cause the main severe weather to be more off to the east/Southeast. Anywhere in the severe zone (s) however.. could potentially see a Tornado with the EHI and SHEAR such as is suggested by the guidance.. In the NORTHEAST..once again there is no severe being suggested by the SREF but isolated severe could again occur anywhere in the Northeast.
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