Earl Maintains Strength As ERC Continues

Earl maintains strength as the Eyewall Replacement Cycle continues. On average the ERC last anywhere from 12-24 hrs ..

Looking at the visible above one can see that they eye has become clouded over and covered..It does appear that it may be attempting to clear itself out.

In the last update we noted that the system was taking on a more ragged appearance and that indeed did become the case in the early morning hours. Earl is a large system and is now on a NW track.

The atmosphere that Earl is going into continues to not be the best in terms of strengthening. While convergence and divergence continues to be excellent with this system there remains a large influx of dry air off the SE coast and shear problems that should provide hindrance to development.

If the ERC can end sometime during the course of the day there might be some slight strengthening but it has a small window left to do so.

The images above show excellent convergence and divergence. The following images are going to show the environment around Earl and the direction he is moving.

On the above image you can see how the eye has become covered and obscured and how the system is a bit more ragged in appearance. Pressure had risen to 939 mbs..and I believe that could drop slightly to around 935 mbs with the next NHC update.

The moral of the story is that the window opportunity for strengthening is a small window before the shear increased further and the dry air begins to effect this system.

While all the East coast from NC to Maine should continue to monitor this storm ..there still does not appear to be any US east coast Landfall.

This will be the only update for today until 1 AM EST tonight. Shortly after that time I will have a full update and their will be coverage over the next 40 + hours round the clock..

The Latest Of What Has Been Non Stop Coverage of Hurricane Earl..

Perhaps an argument can be made when looking at the latest water vapor loop above that the system is becoming a bit more ragged in appearance.

So lets look at the current environment and what is happening and see what we can and can not rule out as a claim to what is making this look a bit more ragged.

First lets look at the convergence and divergence of the system.

Being the system has excellent convergence and divergence we can rule this out as to what could be causing the somewhat ragged look to the system.

Perhaps it is the wall of dry air that is to the NW of Hurricane Earl? So lets look at a water vapor loop that is current..

Well..one can see the dry air is there which shows up as blue on this particular loop and can see its pushing southeast towards the system but at the same time one can also see Earl is pushing back at it. So at this point and time I think we can rule the dry air out at the moment..However..that should become a factor soon.

One can also see with that image that Earl is also moving in a WNW direction with perhaps more a NW turn at the end of the loop. However..back to what could be causing this system to have that slightly ragged look and what could potentially weaken this system.

It does have to do with that dry air to the extent that this dry air is due to an upper level trough. And associated with this dry air and in the direction of the path that Earl is following is some stronger shear formulating…

According to the image above as of 6 Z there is literally a wall of shear in front of him. Lets see if the current shear map as of 1.5 hrs ago also supports the above map.

10-20 knots is currently over the system now but one can also see a huge area of 30 + knots of shear and some 40 knots of shear right to the N and NW of Hurricane Earl.

One also notices looking at that image that the Anticyclone is no longer over the system but displaced to the SW of the system. So i believe that if Earl is not yet starting to feel the effects of this shear that he will be over the next 12 + hours and potentially longer then that before conditions could improve once again.

So i think that the intensity level has actually stopped right now despite the pressure still falling…but its not the pressure that makes the Hurricanes Category but rather the winds of the system and they have remained the same even while the pressure has been dropping.

I have no change in the forecast track that I had issued before..

Unfortunately I will not be able to update this on the basis like i was yesterday as my job calls me away from 2 PM to 1 AM . However..I will start providing updates again from 1 AM  on thru the day on Wednesday into Thursday Afternoon.

As you can tell we are very dedicated here to getting the most accurate information out to the public. Information that not only covers 120 hours but also shows the environment and what to potentially expect.

Thru out the course of the day yesterday I have provided ample evidence that the East Coast does not at this moment have to worry about a landfalling Hurricane. Also the East Coast would be on the west side of the system which would be the weaker side of the system. This does not mean , depending on how close Earl gets, that there might not be some gusty winds and rainfall..However..at this present time if you are expecting to experience a hurricane in the NE part of the USA ..you are only wishcasting this scenario.

We have made calls on this system before the NHC has made the calls and we have been one step ahead and plan on continuing to stay one step ahead so you get the best information available!

00z UKMET & ECM the Lone Star Late Models..

And @ 120 hours …

You can pretty much see that the UKMET has landfall to the east of Maine…ECM is a little harder to judge without the in between hours but they should be out in the next hour or two and will include them when they are out…

Basically it boils down to at this point only one model appears to be showing an east coast landfall and that would be the HWRF…

00Z Model Update With The Tropical Models

Only one model out of all the above models show any type of east coast landfall and that is not until we get up into Cape Cod and that would be the HWRF model. At 18 Z this model had a landfall near Hatteras and as you can see 00z it actually has gone east as well…now though showing landfall in the CC area. However, one model out of how many is really not something you would want your forecast to depend on..

00z Model Update with the GGEM

 

Click on image to become clear to see but the message here is there is no east coast landfall….

00z Model Update With Earl (GFS)

Two things about this image. One, there is no east coast landfalling Hurricane. Two, there is no Fiona!

Has Earl Reached His Peak?

Eastern side of the eye wall has or is in the process of eroding…

A look at the bigger picture….

The above is a closer and different view of the atmosphere that is to the NW of earl and off the SE coast where Earl will be travelling.

As mentioned Earl is looking at going thru Eyewall Replacement Cycle .The dry air above is being caused by an Upper level trough and this should cause an increase in shear over the next 24- 36 hours. So pretty much for now it seems as if the intensification process has stopped due to the ERC and the potential for the increase in shear and the effects of the dry air ahead.

This is the dry air that I have been watching for quite some time now and while its still to early to know exactly what effect it will have on Earl I think it is at least very safe to say that it will not create an environment prone to strengthening.

Western Eye Wall Open For A Reason

Western eyewall open for a reason. During the next 12-24 hrs ERC should begin. Or Eyewall Replacement Cycle should begin!

You can actually see it really good here..

Depending on how long this ERC lasts will determine whether we make a run at Cat 5.

A Word of Caution

There is alot of speculation and panic setting in with Category 4 Earl ..still with a potential to reach Category 5 of making landfall on the east coast. As you can see these are the models above from 18 Z and not one model above shows a US landfall.

I hear the masses already saying but Matt, but what about the Global models?

12 Z ECM is not showing an east coast landfall. While not everyone has access to the ECM model hours in between..we here at R.W.S do have the in between hours and the ECM..while being one of the furthest west Global models still keeps the inner core of Earl off of CAPE COD.. at 108 hrs.

What about the UKMET?

Ukmet is not threatening the east coast with a landfall.

Well, then perhaps maybe its the GGEM thats showing an east coast landfall..

Unfortunately that would not be the case either. So thus far the UKMET, GGEM, ECMWF are not showing a US landfall..SO maybe its the GFS..

Hmmm, perhaps maybe the 18 Z GFS shows the US landfall along the east coast..

Well, there you have it readers. All tropical models and all global models and the consensus of all models is one and the same and that is there is not one single model that is showing an east coast landfall.

Wait you say? If the models are not showing an east coast landfall then what exactly are the models showing?

Well the UKMET has this staying in the Atlantic.

The 12 Z ECMWF shows land fall in Nova Scotia

The GFS shows it just scraping by Nova Scotia on its 18 Z run..

The 12 Z GGEM is similar to the 18 Z GFS …

So the general consensus is either Nova Scotia or somewhere NE of there.

So how has the East Coast landfall come into play? It has come about from people that either do not know how to read a weather model..or people that are just “wishcasting weather” to come their way..Or it comes from fear which is based on not understanding what the models are showing.

One more notion to put to rest. There has been posts and speculation about this moving due west. The image above which is the WV is a great tool and you can see that Earl is actually stair stepping..In other words he is moving WNW….not due west..

The point of this is to show that there is no East Coast Landfall being shown by any models. This does not mean that the coast will not experience effects from Hurricane Earl..However..its a little too early to speculate on what those effects would be.

Keeping it Real thru out the day! Stay tuned!

...EARL BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

And there is the confirmation from the National Hurricane Service that we here at R.W.S called 1.5 hrs before they did!

Below is the latest images:

Earl To Become Category 4 Hurricane

Latest Images as of 18:15 UTC show the eye really clearing out nicely and tightening up as well. As of 3:30 PM EST ..Real Wx Services is officially declaring this as a Cat 4 @ 115 KTS with sustained winds @ 135 –140 MPH . We feel that the National Hurricane Center will confirm this at their 5 PM update. Current pressure as of 18 Z was down to 954 MBS.

Repeat: We are now seeing Earl as a CAT 4! No changes in the thinking of track wise in last update!

Hurricane Earl Latest Ramblings

Hurricane Earl in the morning hours has obtained Major Hurricane Status. One of the two possible things mentioned last night in reference to future development was its interaction with the islands. Whether or not it would have its inner core travel over the islands. This did not occur…However..the islands did and are continuing to experience rough weather from Hurricane Earl.

Earl is currently heading in a WNW to NW direction. This lines up perfectly well with the steering currents that are in place.

Convergence and Divergence continue to be extremely well with this system and outflow has improved in all quadrants. Shear continues to be rather light at 10 knots as of 15 Z..however the southern side of the system is under 20 knots.

The question still remains as to whether or not the dry air heading South towards Earl will have any weakening effect.

Of course that answer will not be known until Earl starts heading more towards that area. So for now will continue to have Earl maintain or slowly increase in strength perhaps becoming a Category 4 in the near future.

I see no reason to deviate from the analysis of last night as far as tracking of this system is concerned..

Stay tuned for further updates thru out the day!

Hurricane Earl Ponderings

Unfortunately I could not get an update out yesterday due to the fact that I had to work all day until 1 AM. So during that time Tropical Storm Earl has become Hurricane Earl and is presently a Category 2 hurricane. Here are the most recent images of Earl..

Notice how this system has become alot more south and west then what was expected by the National Hurricane Center as well as by the models. This is because Earl was generally a slowly developing system which allowed him to stay weaker and caused him to continue on that westward passage. The movement of earl still has a westward component to it but its also starting to move more West Northwest. However…much as I had been talking about the islands are feeling the effects of what is now Hurricane Earl.

As of 3 Z which is the latest data available (as 6 Z has not updated) shear was currently light at 5-10 knots with convergence and divergence very well over the system.

Earl should continue to move off to the West North West over the next 24 hrs. His forward speed has slowed down compared to what it once was. Once Earl approaches the western Edge of the Anticyclone that is to his north he should begin to turn off to the Northwest.

Now, currently there are two things I am watching to see what type of effect this will have on the development of this system as to whether it strengthens or it weakens.

First # 1 is in reference to the islands. Does the inner core of the system cross over any of the islands? If so, what type of effect will it have on the system?

#2 has to do with the image below:

You are looking at the Atlantic Wide view Water Vapor and if you look to the north of Earl you see what looks like an elongated “u” shape that is brownish in color. If you were to put this satellite image into motion then you would see that this area is heading towards the SE in the general direction of Earl in which Earl will soon be moving towards the NW. That area is a large area of dry air. So one has to ask themselves what type of an effect this will have on the system as well?

Unfortunately those are answers that at this time are not yet quite clear but they are some things that could cause potential issues with development. So something to keep in the back of your mind.

Pretty much as stated up above Earl should continue to move to the WNW over the next 24 or so hours before heading NW and then eventually North.

So the million dollar question is will Earl Make landfall on the east coast and if so where? I am still strongly leaning away from a USA landfall. Its all going to depend on how deep the trough is over the midwest. However, the most likely scenario is that Earl will stay anywhere from 50-100 miles off the coast and move up  parallel to the coast and because of his size its going to look like and appear as though hes making landfall on the east coast. However..he should stay off the coast and landfall at this point and time would look to be in the Nova Scotia area.

So here is the track showing the next 5 days …

Stay Tuned for any further updates. And yes I will be here thru the day today with updates on this system.