The Latest Of What Has Been Non Stop Coverage of Hurricane Earl..

Perhaps an argument can be made when looking at the latest water vapor loop above that the system is becoming a bit more ragged in appearance.

So lets look at the current environment and what is happening and see what we can and can not rule out as a claim to what is making this look a bit more ragged.

First lets look at the convergence and divergence of the system.

Being the system has excellent convergence and divergence we can rule this out as to what could be causing the somewhat ragged look to the system.

Perhaps it is the wall of dry air that is to the NW of Hurricane Earl? So lets look at a water vapor loop that is current..

Well..one can see the dry air is there which shows up as blue on this particular loop and can see its pushing southeast towards the system but at the same time one can also see Earl is pushing back at it. So at this point and time I think we can rule the dry air out at the moment..However..that should become a factor soon.

One can also see with that image that Earl is also moving in a WNW direction with perhaps more a NW turn at the end of the loop. However..back to what could be causing this system to have that slightly ragged look and what could potentially weaken this system.

It does have to do with that dry air to the extent that this dry air is due to an upper level trough. And associated with this dry air and in the direction of the path that Earl is following is some stronger shear formulating…

According to the image above as of 6 Z there is literally a wall of shear in front of him. Lets see if the current shear map as of 1.5 hrs ago also supports the above map.

10-20 knots is currently over the system now but one can also see a huge area of 30 + knots of shear and some 40 knots of shear right to the N and NW of Hurricane Earl.

One also notices looking at that image that the Anticyclone is no longer over the system but displaced to the SW of the system. So i believe that if Earl is not yet starting to feel the effects of this shear that he will be over the next 12 + hours and potentially longer then that before conditions could improve once again.

So i think that the intensity level has actually stopped right now despite the pressure still falling…but its not the pressure that makes the Hurricanes Category but rather the winds of the system and they have remained the same even while the pressure has been dropping.

I have no change in the forecast track that I had issued before..

Unfortunately I will not be able to update this on the basis like i was yesterday as my job calls me away from 2 PM to 1 AM . However..I will start providing updates again from 1 AM  on thru the day on Wednesday into Thursday Afternoon.

As you can tell we are very dedicated here to getting the most accurate information out to the public. Information that not only covers 120 hours but also shows the environment and what to potentially expect.

Thru out the course of the day yesterday I have provided ample evidence that the East Coast does not at this moment have to worry about a landfalling Hurricane. Also the East Coast would be on the west side of the system which would be the weaker side of the system. This does not mean , depending on how close Earl gets, that there might not be some gusty winds and rainfall..However..at this present time if you are expecting to experience a hurricane in the NE part of the USA ..you are only wishcasting this scenario.

We have made calls on this system before the NHC has made the calls and we have been one step ahead and plan on continuing to stay one step ahead so you get the best information available!