A Word of Caution

There is alot of speculation and panic setting in with Category 4 Earl ..still with a potential to reach Category 5 of making landfall on the east coast. As you can see these are the models above from 18 Z and not one model above shows a US landfall.

I hear the masses already saying but Matt, but what about the Global models?

12 Z ECM is not showing an east coast landfall. While not everyone has access to the ECM model hours in between..we here at R.W.S do have the in between hours and the ECM..while being one of the furthest west Global models still keeps the inner core of Earl off of CAPE COD.. at 108 hrs.

What about the UKMET?

Ukmet is not threatening the east coast with a landfall.

Well, then perhaps maybe its the GGEM thats showing an east coast landfall..

Unfortunately that would not be the case either. So thus far the UKMET, GGEM, ECMWF are not showing a US landfall..SO maybe its the GFS..

Hmmm, perhaps maybe the 18 Z GFS shows the US landfall along the east coast..

Well, there you have it readers. All tropical models and all global models and the consensus of all models is one and the same and that is there is not one single model that is showing an east coast landfall.

Wait you say? If the models are not showing an east coast landfall then what exactly are the models showing?

Well the UKMET has this staying in the Atlantic.

The 12 Z ECMWF shows land fall in Nova Scotia

The GFS shows it just scraping by Nova Scotia on its 18 Z run..

The 12 Z GGEM is similar to the 18 Z GFS …

So the general consensus is either Nova Scotia or somewhere NE of there.

So how has the East Coast landfall come into play? It has come about from people that either do not know how to read a weather model..or people that are just “wishcasting weather” to come their way..Or it comes from fear which is based on not understanding what the models are showing.

One more notion to put to rest. There has been posts and speculation about this moving due west. The image above which is the WV is a great tool and you can see that Earl is actually stair stepping..In other words he is moving WNW….not due west..

The point of this is to show that there is no East Coast Landfall being shown by any models. This does not mean that the coast will not experience effects from Hurricane Earl..However..its a little too early to speculate on what those effects would be.

Keeping it Real thru out the day! Stay tuned!