Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Tropical Weather Update..Latest on 94 & 93 L

vis-l

wv-l

The above two images are the water vapor and the visible. Currently what you see on the water vapor besides the invest is a ULL which is spinning just off the east coast of Florida. However, what this ULL is serving to do is feed dry air into the system from the east as well as dry air on the west side of the system.
Radar you can detect a spin to the moisture

RAD_MOS_REG_SE_N0R_ANI

However..on the visible it is at the very least certainly more difficult to detect any type of spin. (visible loop click here)

Shear is very light as of 03z with only 5-10 knots

post-12024-1281418972

However as of 3 Z convergence is not very good with the invest and while it is in some upper level divergence the best lies off to the southeast and the vorticity while in a good location is also very large and elongated.
The combination of the dry air and ULL should continue to keep this in check.
Also considering this is a cold core system....this is still a NON TROPICAL low pressure area...
So with being the fact that this is still a cold core system ..in combination with lack of convergence , best divergence southeast and elongated vorticity will place the chances of this becoming a tropical depression in the next 24 hours around 30 % and the chances of this becoming a tropical storm in the next 24 hrs around 20 %..
00Z GFS basically keeps this system rather weak as it heads towards Louisianna.

Now on to 93 L.

There is not all that much to say about 93 L tonight. I am actually kind of surprised that they still have this at a 70 % chance of development. It seems like it has been at 70 % for like ever. At least 24-36 hrs i would say. Anyway here is the visible and i circled where the center actually is:

93

This center is still exposed and void of any convection. What little there is of it is to the north and to the east. So what is the reason for this system not being able to get its act together?
As of 3 Z 93 L is under roughly 10-20 knots of shear...lacks convergence and divergence.

shear

converdiverg

However, its main problem continues to be dry air.

image

Due to the above issues mention will put the chances of this developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hrs at 30 %.

Next update in 24 hrs unless changes would warrant a sooner update!

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