Taking a look at things now as they stand at 06 Z as far as conditions are concerned...All these images just updated in the last 5 minutes.
Latest shear image above shows shear in the range of 20-30 knots across the system with an anticyclone to the NE of the system above 15 N...
Currently the system is outside of the best area of convergence.
Has some divergence occurring but clearly the best area is off to the NW of the system.
Vorticity is looking good , aside from the fact that we are still elongated from SW to NE
Dry air ..there is some dry air in and around the system itself and this along with the shear could be the reason for the following images..
Visible image above shows the center of circulation is exposed and it has been this way at least since about 1 AM or 1:30 AM so about 3 hrs...
Water vapor loop -no doubt about it shows some strong convection to the west of the system and a band to the North that stretches out to the Northeast...However...there is no convection wrapping around the center , none to the SE of the center or to the east. These areas at this present time are completely void of convection.
This was forecasted to be a Tropical storm approximately 2 hours ago and as of yet has not been classified as a tropical storm. Just mentioning this in reference to what the hurricane models were suggesting and what is actually occurring.
I think any further development of this system is going to be slow to occur due to the shear that is in place and the dry air that is around this system. I put the chances of this becoming a Tropical Storm at 5 AM @ 50 % .
At the present time am not going to go beyond this point and time because i would like to see how the environment acts over the morning hours.
There currently is no reason to go out any further in time with my thoughts as this is not posing any threat to any land in the next 24 hours.
Stay tuned for further updates on this developing system.
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