A slowly Strengthening Tropical Storm Earl

Above is some of the latest images of tropical storm earl. Here at Real Wx Services I have been talking about the system moving due west. I have been talking about the system developing slowly. I have talked about the speed of the system and how this could result in the system only slowly strengthening. If you go back to the discussion from the National Hurricane center from 5 AM on the 28th they expected this system to be at 65 KT by 2 AM on the 29th. As of 2 AM we are still at or around 989 mbs and a 55 kt Tropical Storm.

There is no doubt that we have some strong convection associated with this system. The convergence and divergence at the present time is also good. Shear is a little less then favorable because it is between 10-20 knots generally across the system.

However, despite the CIMSS images not really showing it-looking at the most recent visible it would appear as if some dry air is also working its way into the center..The latest image is below

You can see those pockets of dry air intrusion again. So we could once again be seeing a weakening of the system. So because of what appears to be dry air intrusion and some decent shear..this system should continue to only develop slowly.

Water Vapor Loop Atlantic Wide View (click here)

When you click on the loop above you see a couple things. First of all this system is further south and getting awfully close to the islands. So if you are on these islands please be prepared for Tropical Storm Earl.

The second thing you notice is the dry air north and the dry air south of the system. However if you look much further north to the west of Danielle you notice a huge push of dry air pushing southeast. This is pushing towards the area where Earl is expected to start moving in to . So we will have to see what type of an effect that dry air has on the system and see if that would hinder future development.

Another thing you notice is that the system is still generally moving off to the west. This is due to a weaker system. This is due to the steering currents..

If tropical storm Earl continues on its current path it would take it across the islands and then one has to wonder what effect if any this would have on the systems development? Earl is forecasted to find the weakness in the ridge and start to move off towards the WNW and then NW and then eventually north but as we have seen so far..Earl has not been doing what is expected. So we will have to watch and continue to monitor the progression of this system. The further west this system gets the more chances for either a east coast landfall or perhaps even crossing into the caribbean? Right now i am putting the chances of crossing into the Caribbean at less then 10 % and the chances of an east coast Landfall at 20 %

Stay tuned for the next update on this developing system.

Just a note ..there has been no discussion about the potential of Fiona because there is yet to be a tropical cyclone developed. As soon as that were to occur there will be a discussion provided.