Ahh Its Invest 91 Time

Well, invest 90 became no more and we shifted east a couple hundred miles about 200-300 to be precise and we have now highlighted invest 91 L.

Earlier yesterday NHC had upgraded to an 80% chance on developing into a Tropical Depression. Earlier yesterday on the internet i made a comment that i would with hold any thoughts in reference to that upgrade.

Well lets look at the reasons why…

The above is from August 1st at 4:45 UTC

This picture above is from August 2nd at 4:45 UTC just twenty four hours later. Now which image has the deeper convection? Photo # 1. Which image has a closed low? Or a defined center of circulation? That would be neither image. So we have NHC saying at  2 PM this afternoon that a Tropical Depression maybe forming and up the chances to 80%..and then 90% . So 12 hrs later there is still not a tropical depression forming despite there words of it appears a tropical depression is forming at 2 PM yesterday. Despite the fact that at the time of saying this convection was waning..despite the fact that 12 hrs later they are saying that there is no defined center of circulation. So the ultimate question once again towards NHC..is praytell how you can have a tropical depression forming without a defined center of circulation? The answer is you can not have a Tropical Depression without a closed low!

So lets look at conditions now. We are currently in 10-20 knots of shear..While this can still develop in shear of that range..more favorable would be 5-10 knots.

The system is also as of 3 Z no longer in the best convergence, or the best divergence.

As both of these area lie to the North of the system. Its also not located in the best vorticity area as that is off to its Northeast..

The system does not really have any deep convection with it...and let me introduce you to what looks like another tropical wave on the right hand side of the water vapor just getting into the image You can see the water vapor image above. This could very well cause a competing dual between the two waves, which ends up getting the energy? This has been seen multiple times this season already...
And there is still dry air off to its north...NW...NE ..Factor in it is a large system..and larger systems take longer to develop and spin up.

So all in all i think NHC did jump the gun on development and would put the chances over the next 24-48 hrs at 50 %.