Well, Real Wx Services has been insistent that development of this system was going to be slow and this persistent analysis while not a popular opinion has continued to be the correct analysis.
If one were to go by the National Hurricane Centers forecast discussion at 11 AM on the 25th this would have been a 55 KT storm by today at 12 Z. Their very next discussion at 5 PM same day would have had this at a 65 KT storm by 2 PM today. 11 PM discussion would have been 65 KT by 8 PM today. Ever since the 26th however they have been slowing the intensification rate down.
Real Wx Services has been persistent with slow development to this system is the key to this system. In other words, the weaker the storm and the slower it develops the more this comes dependable on relying on those steering currents that will continue to take this storm off to the west.
We also pointed out ahead of the National Hurricane Center that these islands had to keep an eye on Earl for potential effects.
Now as of today there are Tropical Storm watches out for portions of the islands. Again, Real Wx Services has been leading the way with this system and we will continue to stay on top of things.
So lets take a look at tropical storm earl and the environment that is around this system .
Currently there is some decent convection associated with earl but as has been the case the convections is mainly to the west of the center. The eastern half of the system is basically being effected by dry air so it has a really disorganized look to it and organization of this system has been painfully slow.
Convergence and divergence with the system is quite decent. Shear is also very light at only about 5-10 knots. Certainly nothing that is detrimental to developing. Earl is approaching warmer waters so this could help to cause him to organize better. However, the main problem that has been associated with Earl and has continued to plague him has been the dry air that is surrounding this system.
As you can see the dry air is essentially surrounding this system on all sides and i think this is the very reason that development of this system has been rather slow. So the presence of this dry air should continue to kind of temper down development. However, as mentioned above that the longer this system remains on the weaker side the more it will be subjected to the steering currents allowing it to continue to move west and that should be the continued movement over the next 24-36 hours. Eventually this system should start to feel the weakness in the ridge and start being pulled to the NW and eventually NNW and North.
At this present time I continue to feel that Earl Poses not threat to the US East Coast. However, Bermuda may be a different story as well as the islands mentioned above.
For this reason a tracking chart has been created to cover the next 5 days…
Anyone living in the Islands need to pay attention to this storm. Stay tuned for further updates on Tropical Storm Earl!
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