Just got home from work not to long ago and see that Danielle has been thru alot today. Has been thru a weakening stage where she was downgraded to a tropical storm. I pretty much stated that she was a tropical storm before i left for work. Since that point and time she has been upgraded back to a hurricane but I think a weakening process could be coming into play again now and if not now shortly.
Its interesting that they were not sure why Danielle weakened. It was pretty clear and obvious that it was a case of dry air invasion and shear. Whenever you have dry air being ingested into a system you are looking at a storm that has a good chance of weakening.
Latest visible shot shows pretty much that she is once again expanding and no longer symmetrical...
Water Vapor shows convection is once again warming..
Perhaps the most important of all is its still surrounded by dry air, and seems like it could be working in towards the center again, and shear is pretty decent across the system as well , 30 + knots.
So there is a good chance that we could go thru a weakening stage once again and if not at the very least this should serve to keep this system in check.
I do not think that this is going to become a major hurricane anymore... i think the damage it took earlier pretty much has set the system back to much .
As far as where this system should go in the short term is it should generally continue to head in a west North west direction.
Time will tell if my thinking is correct up above but between the shear, dry air and ULL to its north causing the shear ..either weakening of the system of at least held in check.
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