There has been a lot of discussion about the Madden Julian Oscillation and why the rest of the hurricane season should be hyper active. This reasoning that has been provided is that we are now in the peak of the season and the MJO is heading from Phase 8 into Phases 1 and 2. Well, we all know that Phases 1 and 2 support tropical development. So there would be no argument from that perspective. However, where is the MJO currently? Is it really in phase 8 and about to head into phases 1 & 2?
The answer to that is no! Its actually in Phase 4 currently and looks to be headed into phase 5 as of the 23rd.
As far as the rest of the season is concerned ..we are currently up to the letter E. 5 Named storms. Time will tell what the rest of the season has in store but one thing is certain MJO looks to be headed into the region that becomes what JB would call the “tropic killer” .
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