Well, there really is not all that much to say about COLIN. While NHC has been constantly forecasting this to restrengthen..while Joe Bastardi was calling for this to become a hurricane…Here at Real Wx Services we have been constantly pointing out the environment and COLINS surroundings as the reason why COLIN would not be becoming stronger but rather weakening as time moves along.
As of 6 Z according to the RAMMB site (click here) ..COLIN has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression, So that weakening has continued and you have been hearing and reading it here before anywhere else!
So lets move on to the next invest that is currently on the NHC map. This would be invest 93 L. First a water vapor image ..
The coordinates for this around 6 Z was around 42 W & 22 N. Currently as of 6 Z the area is in a good convergence zone as well as a good divergence zone. However, two things stand out as of 6 Z.
The first thing that stands out as of 6 Z is the shear around the system is at least 10 knots to 20 knots across the system but even higher shear to its NW , which is the direction that this is moving.
And as you can see the shear is also increasing off to its Northwest as the shear tendency map shows.
However, and perhaps more importantly is the dry air that is around the system.
The area that is circled is approximate location of the invest around 6 Z ..so just disregard the other I that is on that map. As you can see the dry air that surrounds the system is practically on all sides. So, even though the convergence/divergence is good..the shear 10-20 knots and the dry air may actually hinder any real development of this system from occurring. Right now i put the chances of this developing into a named system at about 30 %.
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