Colin has been a rather amazing storm in the sense that when he first became a tropical storm he was very short lived. Was downgraded to a regenerate low, however..kept his circulation and re intensified earlier yesterday afternoon. So COLIN was reclassified as a 45 MPH tropical storm and by 8 PM was upgraded to a 60 MPH tropical storm. 11 PM maintained status quo and as of 2 AM ..pressure had risen to 1007 mbs and winds were down to 50 MPH…
That is a brief history about the third storm of the Atlantic season. Today’s date is August 6th.
Looking at COLIN this morning we find once again that COLIN is exposed. The circulation is evident but its exposure is also evident. Another thing that is relatively evident is that whatever convection was there…is no longer. Of course this is the diurnal max that we are currently experiencing so its a little difficult to imagine anything other then COLIN is going thru a weakening phase.
Currently COLIN is undergoing about 10-20 knots of shear, This is lower then what it was undergoing yesterday. However, its outside the best convergence and divergence areas..
However, despite COLIN being in the best vorticity problem ..I believe the main issue that COLIN is experiencing now that is robbing him of his convection is two fold. First the LLC is exposed and out ahead of the little convection that is actually there.
Second, is the dry air that is basically flanking COLIN on all sides.
The latest visible image from 7:15 UTC shows that the center is pulling further away from the convection. This is not something you want to see in a strengthening storm.
We are about an hour away from the next NHC update and it would not surprise me to see them lower his winds once again as he appears to be undergoing too much dry air along with some decent shear.
Until the convection pulls the center back towards it or the convection catches up to the center i would not look for any further intensification.
Quite possibly it could be all downhill from this point on but not quite ready to say that yet considering how he has been a fighter so to speak.
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