Is this for real? Tropical Update!

I have been rather quiet when it comes to the tropics because quite simply the tropics have been rather quiet for mid August and in a time period where activity was suppose to ramp up on August 1st. This statement according to climatology and basically every pro met on the internet. Despite this declaration being announced the tropics have been quiet. So with nothing simply on the plate at this time, outside of a ramped up activity for about 7 + days from now, attention has turned seemingly to the remains of TD #5.

My question becomes is this for real? First off, NHC declared this system as dissipated. This means the system is no more. It means its circulation was no longer defined and no longer closed because it had gone over land.

So as of yesterday..NHC designated this at a 20 % chance of redeveloping and as of today a 30 % chance at redeveloping. I understand that the tropics are quiet and slow and going into mid august we stand at three storms that were named..Alex, Bonnie and Colin. However…lets take a look at what we are seemingly classifying here for redevelopment.

Before we do that though we have to first let the readers know in case they are not aware what a tropical cyclone is:

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any "front" attached, that develops over the tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation.

Ok, so there you have it a tropical cyclone or lets take this a step further..a system that develops over tropical or subtropical waters with no association of any frontal systems. So from this definition we find two things that are necessary to be a tropical cyclone or a system to develop into a tropical cyclone. Those two things are:

1. Over tropical or subtropical waters

2. No front association.

So now lets look at the remains to TD #5.

Within the pink circle is the location of the broad circulation.  Notice that this circulation is over Land. It is over SE Alabama. Just in case there is any doubt, cause i want my readers to be perfectly clear on this…Lets look at the latest HPC 15 Z surface analysis map.

So there we see the low pressure that was once TD #5. Over SE Alabama. Now…requirement #1 stated that it must be over tropical or subtropical waters. So apparently the low pressure above does not and would not qualify.

However..requirement #2 was no association with a front. Well, as the surface analysis indicates above ..this low pressure is clearly associated with a front. So , this low pressure system fails not only in one requirement but it also fails in the 2nd requirement.

So, why is this system highlighted in the first place at this point and time? At this present time this should not be highlighted. Once it actually emerges over the open waters (if it indeed does) and once it loses its frontal system ..at that point and time highlight the system.

Meanwhile the heaviest and steadiest convection and rains are actually over the Northern GOM which is south of the center of circulation that remains.

Stay tuned for any further updates.