While yesterdays severe weather never panned out across western PA or Western NY ..the forecast did pan out across Ohio. That was the only location that seen severe weather as far as the mid atlantic into the Northeast was concerned.
Today ..potentially looks like a good day for severe weather..however..some things still cause me to throw a red flag up as well. Current cloud cover across the eastern regions. The timing of the cold front. Latest SREF seems to have the region with the best chance of severe weather between 15 Z and 18 Z. This could be too early to let the best daytime heating occur across the region.
Looking at the latest severe weather parameters ,,
Lift index looks to be between –2 and –6
CAPE –Generally 1000-2000
Lapse rates once again are mainly weak at 5.5 to 6.0
Shear looks to be between 30-40 knots
Dewpoints look to be in the 60s to 70 range once again with temperatures in the 80s.
So with all the above in mind..this is the zone that i think has the best chance at severe weather…keeping in mind the potential cloud cover tempering temperatures and severe.
The main threat looks to be damaging winds and heavy rains and isolated hail perhaps further north.
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