Invest 96 L Thoughts…Slow Development is Key

Just a little note with Danielle..NHC at 5 AM is going to raise the intensity by 10 knots to 75 KTS and a pressure of 8 mbs dropped over a 3 hr span… They are going to do this despite the images from 6:45 UTC looking like this…

Anyone that follows tropical storms can see that this convection is warming compared to a little while ago when it showed colder cloud tops and also the visible shows pockets of dry air also invading. Folks even though NHC more then likely is going to say that the pressure has dropped 8 MBS and raises the intensity this thing is once again unravelling.

Now lets go to invest 96 L. The invest that has been at 90 % for quite sometime. Development of this system is going to continue to be slow and while it will probably make it do a tropical depression it will have a hard time making it much higher then that…At least for the short term.

There still as of 6 Z is no convergence over the system or divergence. Shear is not at a level that it would prevent development but it would cause it to be slower. Its currently 10-20 knots…However, as has been the story with the Atlantic this season the dry air is pretty much surrounding this system and right in its path of direction. The vorticity also continues to be rather stretched out and elongated. Its a rather broad area of low pressure.

Most recent visible image of 96 L

Another factor that could slow things down is the wave that is just coming off Africa now. This may also be another cause for slower development.

Stay tuned for further updates on both these systems.