Perhaps The Only Game In Town Between Now And Sept 1st!

Today’s date is August 19th. We are presently almost thru 3 weeks of the month that was suppose to be the start of the ramped up hurricane season. So far for the month of August we have had one named system Colin, which was a relatively short and sheared out cyclone. We also had TD # 5 which was also a sheared out system…which even had a second chance at regeneration and still fell shy of the mark. Currently the tropics are quiet. However, that could change with what I am calling the only game in town.

The above image is showing Africa. The wave that is being talked about and discussed is actually to the west of Africa. However, there is actually two waves to the west of AFRICA with in close proximity to one another.

The above image is actually from 00z as this image has not updated yet. But you can clearly see that there are actually two tropical waves. The other thing you notice is the ITCZ which starts around 15 North and then runs west and slightly south from there.

Now look at the top image once again, and then look at this image below:

Look carefully at the three images and what you will notice is that these two tropical waves at the present time are actually intertwined or involved with the ITCZ.

Now …all global models have this wave developing by 00z this evening. We will take a look at the three global models in a matter of minutes. They all develop this within 24 hrs but in order for one or two or even both of these waves to develop…they have to break away from the ITCZ.

Notice the words of NHC in reference to these two waves.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N32W 18N31W 14N27W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH
IF ANY OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS
WAVE...OR IF THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N39W 18N41W 12N40W 
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY OF 
THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF 
THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

So it seems that these waves are having interaction with the ITCZ and when you look at the above graphic that shows the ITCZ..you can understand why.

Just two days ago on the 17th..the models were developing the first wave and turning this into a hurricane. However, as of the 18th the models switched emphasis from the 1st wave to the second wave….(SEE HPC) and also turn this wave into a hurricane and perhaps a major hurricane.

Now, i have been persistent with saying that at this point and time there is not even a invest highlighted by the National Hurricane Center to give any type of percentage of this developing over the next 48 hrs. Remember the models start developing this in 24 hours and yet as of 2 AM …

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

So there we have the forecaster from National Hurricane Center saying that over the next 48 hours they are not expecting any tropical cyclone formation and yet the models are saying differently. It makes one wonder if they have seen the latest model runs or perhaps they are noticing something different? 

To me it seems that they are not highlighting this with a percentage yet because it appears to be part of or involved with the ITCZ.

Now lets look at the models that just came out this early morning. First up is the GFS.

Next is the 00z ECM

And last but not least is the 00Z GGEM

All the above images are at 240 hours. All the above images show this wave to have the potential to develop into a hurricane. All these above images also have one other thing in common and that is the agreement of the potential hurricane re-curving out and away from the east coast into the open atlantic.

Now keep in mind when looking at these images we are talking about something in the long range yet. Yes, development is expected to start in the next 24 hours but the above images are actually at 10 days out.

So , now what i want to do is cut this time frame down by half. Which means lets look at the models at 120 hours and because we are going to be cutting this into half at 5 days this will allow the introduction of a 4th model the UKMET. Lets see if we still have agreement.

The above is the GFS.

The above is the ECM

The above is the GGEM

And finally the above is the UKMET. Now, all these images are 120 hours out. Three of the four models develop this system into a closed system. However, the 4th model does not develop this into a closed system. Does this make this model (UKMET) the outlier? It could mean its the outlier model or it could also mean it is sensing something that the other models are not sensing. Could it be the involvement with the ITCZ? Or perhaps could it mean the dry air that is out ahead of this system?

One thing that is clear is that all models are not in agreement on this wave closing off at the same time. This might not mean anything or it could mean that their could be some issues ahead that would cause development to be alot slower then what the other models are indicating.

Now, I am branching out on my own here with this above discussion. I am also maintaining the stance that until we actually have a invest area that essentially right now the details on any model at ten days out can simply not be trusted.

Readers, this is not something that is new or just occurring. It does not make a difference whether its tropical season or winter. Models simply can not be trusted with details at this range.

The first test for this system will be to see if it can develop as the models start developing it in the next 24 hrs.

None of the above means that I do not believe this is going to develop. What it means is that there is alot of uncertainty despite the agreement at 10 days out!