Earl Maintains Strength As ERC Continues

Earl maintains strength as the Eyewall Replacement Cycle continues. On average the ERC last anywhere from 12-24 hrs ..

Looking at the visible above one can see that they eye has become clouded over and covered..It does appear that it may be attempting to clear itself out.

In the last update we noted that the system was taking on a more ragged appearance and that indeed did become the case in the early morning hours. Earl is a large system and is now on a NW track.

The atmosphere that Earl is going into continues to not be the best in terms of strengthening. While convergence and divergence continues to be excellent with this system there remains a large influx of dry air off the SE coast and shear problems that should provide hindrance to development.

If the ERC can end sometime during the course of the day there might be some slight strengthening but it has a small window left to do so.

The images above show excellent convergence and divergence. The following images are going to show the environment around Earl and the direction he is moving.

On the above image you can see how the eye has become covered and obscured and how the system is a bit more ragged in appearance. Pressure had risen to 939 mbs..and I believe that could drop slightly to around 935 mbs with the next NHC update.

The moral of the story is that the window opportunity for strengthening is a small window before the shear increased further and the dry air begins to effect this system.

While all the East coast from NC to Maine should continue to monitor this storm ..there still does not appear to be any US east coast Landfall.

This will be the only update for today until 1 AM EST tonight. Shortly after that time I will have a full update and their will be coverage over the next 40 + hours round the clock..