Pretty much on target from the forecast issued yesterday..we mentioned that Colin should start weakening and that synopsis given yesterday was carried out yesterday as COLIN did indeed weaken and at times was a naked swirl with little if any convection. Towards evening yesterday some convection resumed and has given off the appearance of perhaps strengthening a little bit as well. However, COLIN was still a well sheared cyclone and with these systems convection will pulse up and down essentially.
At this present time shear has actually decreased in the vicinity of COLIN. About 5-10 knots of shear are being entertained right now. Divergence is good however the best is actually off to the southeast ..while its in between the best convergence zones with one north and one to its south.
Of course a problem that has been plaguing COLIN and just about every invest this season that tries to get going is dry air and that is still a present problem with COLIN.
The above image shows the convergence, divergence and the dry air which is immediately north and south of the system.
According to the 2 AM NHC advisory COLIN has not been moving all that much. Now, when a tropical cyclone is stationary for too long it will cause upswelling of the warmer waters that it is over. So this is one aspect that we have to look at. Another aspect is that once COLIN starts to move again he will pick up in speed and be approaching colder waters.
So despite having lower shear which would be giving a better environment to COLIN..the other factors such as dry air..not in the best convergence , approaching colder waters .. should keep COLIN from strengthening much more. So despite even a better appearance on water vapor…I am going to go out on a limb and say that with the 5 AM update COLIN will be reduced from its current intensity and perhaps even lowered in expected future intensity. I think the window for strengthening is closing fast on COLIN and it still should be pretty much down hill from this point out.
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