Well after about 2-3 weeks of silence in the tropics..the tropics have finally become active. The last time that i posted on this system we were a Tropical Depression and i mentioned that development would be slow to occur until the dry air and shear disappeared. About 15 or so hours behind schedule (NHC schedule) Tropical Depression #6 became Tropical Storm Danielle. It had a rough time due to that shear and dry air or subsidence causing it to be exposed for quite sometime. Finally yesterday afternoon she began to get her act together and started building some solid convection and explosive convection. However, thru the night the center was still on the eastern-northeastern edge of the deepest convection. Never the less, she was pulling together.
As of today..Danielle looks like this:
As one can plainly see Danielle has the symmetrical look that all tropical storms on the verge of a Hurricane obtain. Pressure as of 11 AM was 994 mbs..Pressure just three hours later is 987 MBS… Folks this is a 7 hour pressure drop in the 3 hrs. So in three hours this system has stepped up in strength and is now a Hurricane as far as Real Weather Services is concerned.
Presently there is an anticyclone that has developed over top of the storm and this is making any shear out there of little to no effect on the system.
As far as the track of Danielle is concerned ..presently she is a little south of where the NHC has there trop plots. She is heading in a WNW direction and while she should begin to move more in a NW direction , there is some concern for the lesser Antille Islands. Current thinking by latest guidance suggests it should recurve safely out of the way but then the fact that this is somewhat south of NHC trop plots and the steering currents look like this:
You can see why there is some concern for the islands off to the west.
Presently there is nothing that i can forsee that would hinder development of Danielle into a Major Hurricane.
One thing guidance is pretty firm on is that this should recurve safely away from the USA and remain out over the open atlantic. I see no reason to sway from this particular line of thinking.
At this point and time I will not be issuing any type of conus track because it appears that no land will be effected. If this should change and it would appear that the islands could be effected then a tracking chart will be produced at that time.
Danielle makes the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2010 season with some models and NHC suggesting that Invest 96 L has the potential to become #5. I will have a post on that a little later.
Meanwhile the E Pac is currently on #7 with tropical storm Frank.
With August just about over on the Atlantic side we stand at 4 with september –november to go.
The break down looks like this:
June Alex
July: Bonnie
August Colin and Danielle
To reach the low end of the many forecasts by pro agencies of 18 named storms we would need to obtain 14 more cyclones just to hit that low end #. Can it be done? Only time will tell…
Stay tuned for further updates.
No comments:
Post a Comment