Latest thoughts on 90 L which is no longer 90 L which would become 91 L

Well, not to rehash what has been already said and stated around the internet, but since 90 L was deactivated and declassified earlier yesterday this would not be 90 L. Another reason this would not be 90 L was when 90 L was first highlighted at 20 % making it an invest it was 600 miles from the islands. This is 850 miles from the islands. So we have shifted 250 miles east and since waves move off the African Coast in a east to west fashion this can not and could not be 90 L.

The above is a still image of the water vapor. Like i said while speaking to Carlos.. this is one tool that i love and can not ever get enough of.
First thing you are going to notice is the rather far south position of this wave. Well, that is because it is essentially from what i can see still part of the ITCZ. I have highlighted some things. First to the North is the huge ULL. Second is the ton of dry air to its north. Dry air is denoted on the water vapor images by the orange color. Third thing is i have drawn a yellow line. From approximately the center of this wave and south it is now involved in and under 10-30 knots of shear.

Essentially because this system is so far to the south and essentially still part of the ITCZ the movement also indicated on the WV image and also indicated by NHC is due west. If this movement does not change and if this system does not pick up latitude ..you can essentially say hello to South America. However..if it does actually gain some latitude then off to its NW is all that dry air. So it really is a catch 22.
Now i have seen comments in reference to the GFS being the most consistent with this system. Perhaps consistence can be viewed as a plus with the model but only if it is not being consistently wrong.
How is it going to intensify a system the way it does...with it being in strong westerlies from an ULL?

Image courtesy of (click here)

This simply is not a possible happening. So basically we can toss the GFS out the window at this point and time...
Operational GFS

GFS ensemble mean

Quite the difference between the two at the same time frame.

While the MJO could enhance convection with this system..its heading towards the COD which is neutral for when it comes to tropical cyclones & there development. It would be much better if this were in Phase 1 or Phase 2 but being its headed into the COD this does not spell out the best development potential.
So with all the above factors in play, any development will be slow to happen.