August 5th Severe Potential

Severe potential or not is the question of the early morning hour. Well, lets look at the positives that we have for severe potential today.

Dewpoints in the 70s

Temperatures in the 90s

Trigger Advancing cold front

CAPE 1000-2000 higher pockets to the Southeast that are above 2000

Lift index about –2 to –4

Shear around 30 knots +

All the best parameters are equivalent to the zone in red…though the temperatures and dewpoints apply to basically the whole region.

Some negatives or potential negatives that need to be factored into the equation of severe weather or not…

Relatively thick cloud cover

Mid level lapse rates of around 5.5

Current radar showing convective rains across central PA into Western PA and then into NY as well. Could this cause the atmosphere to become a little more stable and perhaps with the cloud cover leave some subsidence behind?

All and all I think the best chances for severe weather are going to be south of the PA border. This does not mean that severe will not occur further to the north just i think that the greater chance is the further south you go.

Any storms that do occur will have the potential to drop very heavy rain as precipitable water is over 2 inches in parts of the region. So some flash flooding and local and urban flooding is possible. Because of colder air aloft over the far NE there could be the potential for hail. Other wise the main aspect of severe weather will be the wind potential.