About the only invest that is left in the tropics at this point and time is invest 93 L. This system for the longest time was kept at 70% and then it was finally lowered to 60 % only to be increased again to 70% and finally a new threshold of 50% back down into the medium category.
As I been basically saying this system is not in the best environment. It has been battered by dry air. It has been hindered by Upper Level Lows and it has not had the best shear environment despite the anti cyclone being near by. This system has had a history of being an exposed swirl. As you can see the actual location as of 18 Z of this invest was in between the two areas.
Shear is actually 20 knots + across this system. The dry air still surrounds this system but not showing as strongly on this image as prior time frames.
Both convergence and divergence lies to the east of the system And the best vorticity also lies to the east.
As the Water Vapor image above shows there is not much if any convection associated with this system. Currently there are too many negative factors for development of this system so will lower the systems chances of developing to 10%. It may indeed go thru another period of convection blow up but because of the factors involved above it should have difficulty maintaining that convection.
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