Unfortunately I could not get an update out yesterday due to the fact that I had to work all day until 1 AM. So during that time Tropical Storm Earl has become Hurricane Earl and is presently a Category 2 hurricane. Here are the most recent images of Earl..
Notice how this system has become alot more south and west then what was expected by the National Hurricane Center as well as by the models. This is because Earl was generally a slowly developing system which allowed him to stay weaker and caused him to continue on that westward passage. The movement of earl still has a westward component to it but its also starting to move more West Northwest. However…much as I had been talking about the islands are feeling the effects of what is now Hurricane Earl.
As of 3 Z which is the latest data available (as 6 Z has not updated) shear was currently light at 5-10 knots with convergence and divergence very well over the system.
Earl should continue to move off to the West North West over the next 24 hrs. His forward speed has slowed down compared to what it once was. Once Earl approaches the western Edge of the Anticyclone that is to his north he should begin to turn off to the Northwest.
Now, currently there are two things I am watching to see what type of effect this will have on the development of this system as to whether it strengthens or it weakens.
First # 1 is in reference to the islands. Does the inner core of the system cross over any of the islands? If so, what type of effect will it have on the system?
#2 has to do with the image below:
You are looking at the Atlantic Wide view Water Vapor and if you look to the north of Earl you see what looks like an elongated “u” shape that is brownish in color. If you were to put this satellite image into motion then you would see that this area is heading towards the SE in the general direction of Earl in which Earl will soon be moving towards the NW. That area is a large area of dry air. So one has to ask themselves what type of an effect this will have on the system as well?
Unfortunately those are answers that at this time are not yet quite clear but they are some things that could cause potential issues with development. So something to keep in the back of your mind.
Pretty much as stated up above Earl should continue to move to the WNW over the next 24 or so hours before heading NW and then eventually North.
So the million dollar question is will Earl Make landfall on the east coast and if so where? I am still strongly leaning away from a USA landfall. Its all going to depend on how deep the trough is over the midwest. However, the most likely scenario is that Earl will stay anywhere from 50-100 miles off the coast and move up parallel to the coast and because of his size its going to look like and appear as though hes making landfall on the east coast. However..he should stay off the coast and landfall at this point and time would look to be in the Nova Scotia area.
So here is the track showing the next 5 days …
Stay Tuned for any further updates. And yes I will be here thru the day today with updates on this system.
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