National Hurricane Center has another invest listed on their latest graphic with a 40 % chance of developing. This would be PGI 34L . This would be in the vicinity of around 10 N and 20 W.
. Models are generally thinking that this could become Earl. So because of this ..they are generally thinking that this has a decent chance of developing into the next tropical cylone.
At this present time, this would not be the current thinking from RWS team leader and founder. Here is the reasons why. Lets look at what is happening as far as present conditions are concerned.
The invest is currently under 10-20 knots of shear with even stronger shear to its south.
Currently the system has absolutely no convergence or divergence to work with.
And the vorticity is extremely large and stretched out and elongated. Despite the models and what they are indicating at this present time..conditions are not all that favorable for development.
So with the above present conditions..I am placing chances at this developing into a tropical cyclone at 20 % over the next 48 hrs. If conditions should change their will be a further update. Otherwise the next update will be tomorrow night.
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