Tropical Update Early Morning Thoughts with more emphasis on Earl!

The main focus of this update is going to mainly focus on tropical storm Earl. The reason being is because Earl has the potential to be a threat to land. However…before we get to Earl …I want to acknowledge the fact that Danielle has become a Major Hurricane early this morning at 105 KT.

Here are some recent photos of Danielle

A very well defined eye and has finally managed to wrap convection around its center. Pressure was down to 955 mbs and I think by 5 AM if there is an update at that time the pressure will have dropped another 4 mbs down to 951 mbs.

However, Danielle poses at this present time no threat to the East Coast and should also be steered to the east of Bermuda.

As i mentioned the main focus of this update is going to be around Tropical Storm Earl. Below is some recent images of Earl.

Yesterday I mentioned that slow development of this system was going to be key and thoughts have not changed from that overall thinking. While there is some nice convection blossoming now it appears to all be west of where the center actually is. However, pretty much of the day yesterday was spent with this system having little to any convection. Currently i think this is probably in a weakening stage (temporary) and could be back down to about 35 KT and its quite possible at 5 AM that we might see a rise in the pressure as well as latest ADT is indicating this pressure rise.

Present environment shows that shear is actually not hindering development at this point and time but rather I think the weakening is being caused by two things. Primarily the dry air that is entrained around this system. Secondly would be the fact that the system is outside the best convergence while divergence remains decent.

Here is a look at the shear and convergence /divergence and the dry air .

So why does this get the most attention in the tropical update tonight? Essentially Earl looks like it could actually pose a threat to the Antille Islands.

This system is further south then Danielle and is headed on a due west motion. This motion looks to continue thru the next several days and the latest thinking is that it will probably be crossing between 55 W and 58 W ..in about 7 days before it finally begins to turn to the Northwest and then more to the North. So this will put the islands above into feeling the effects of Earl.

It is still to early to really know what type of system we will be dealing with at this point and time. However, I want everyone on those islands to be prepared to be on the safe side.

AS far as PGI 36 L ..I am not going to put to much emphasis on that invest until we actually have a COC developed. For now will suffice to let you with this picture..

Next update will be issued within the next 24 hours.