Yesterday was essentially a day spent tracking down what use to be the remnants of TD #5. Essentially as R.W.S founder i talked about the possibility of this becoming a Tropical Depression again but being incapable of making it to tropical storm status. This system was just never shown to get that far off the coast to take any kind of advantage of the warmer waters. This system also spent too much time over land attached to a front which caused the circulation to become broad and weak. The system was essentially aided by daytime heating which triggered the convection. This is why at night the convection generally faded despite the diurnal max period. The system also thru out the day yesterday became under the influence of 10-20 knots of shear. So, in reality it was a combination of all the above that led to this system never being able to actually regenerate.
Looking at the radar above it appears that the remnants have run out of time and appear to have made landfall around SE Louisiana. So this is a chapter that can come to a close in the 2010 hurricane season.
The date today is August 17th:
The seasons results so far only looking at named systems because they are the ones that contribute towards ACE & storm total #s.
June we had Alex which was a major hurricane.
July we had Bonnie which was a minimal TS …
August we had Colin which was a minimal TS and a very short one.
So more then midway thru the month we have had only 1 named storm. Three total on the season. This during what was forecasted to be a very hyper and above normal hurricane season.
The month of July which was expected to be a ramped up version of August. The month of August which was expected to be ramped up because of Climatology.
The good news if you are a tropical storm and hurricane enthusiast is that the models are showing a wave developing and turning into a Major hurricane in the 7-10 day frame. For the purpose of this discussion I am referencing only the ECM because it is by far the best Global Model.
My perspective on this ATM is pretty simple:
First and foremost it is way to early to even begin to speculate about a track considering we do not even have a wave that is developed into an invest. Also it is way to early to think about terms of intensification and recurves or not to recurve...
However, we do need to wait to see if this wave can actually develop. Why do i say this?
There is anywhere from 10-40 knots of shear over the system. But perhaps worse then that is the tremendous amount of dry air that is to the west of this system and not to mention to the north either.
So we need to see how this system survives as it tracks off to the west or west northwest before we can even begin to speculate on long range prospects...
One other thought on this potentially is that there could be two waves at one point in the east atlantic. One that is near the CAPE VERDE ISLANDS now and the wave behind it. The first wave is moving slowly and appears to be getting a little involved with the ITCZ..this could cause this wave to slow down even more. Meanwhile, the 2nd wave is moving extremely fast at about 30 knots to the West. What potentially should happen or could happen is that the 2nd wave catches up to the first wave and they get to close to each other which would more or less cause a negative type of interference where one wave could cancel out the other ..or perhaps both get cancelled out…
Right now I think it would probably be the first scenario that one would cancel out the other and the other would continue to move off to the west. However..the dry air that is out in the Atlantic ahead of either of the waves could pose developmental problems and hence why the perspective is to wait to see if one of these waves can become an AOI (area of interest) or Invest. I will continue to keep an eye on this and will update as necessary!
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