R.W.S First Level 1 Alert of the 2010-11 Winter Season!

Level 1 Alert : On Guard. This means conditions look favorable for a significant winter event across the region or a light to moderate winter event!


Date & Time: November 29th 2010 @ 2:30 AM EST


Area Of Potential: Southern Mid Atlantic, Mid Atlantic & Northeast.


As mentioned above level 1 just implies that conditions look favorable for a potential winter storm. It does not mean that one will take place but conditions warrant being watched.


This level 1 alert is actually being issued for the time period of December 8-10th 2010.


Lets take a look at the modeling that has lead to this Level 1 Alert.







GFS is showing a storm system that takes shape and gathers moisture from the GOM while over the Southeast and then it moves the system up the coast as it deepens and gets down to about 986 mbs. This particular solution would not provide a snowstorm to the south. However…



The 00z ECM would provide the southern Mid Atlantic with a snowstorm and as of 240 hours it is just off the coast of Cape Hatteras! The ECM does not go beyond this time frame..so it kind of leaves the snow lovers further to the north high and dry at this point and time.
Pretty much the reason that the ECM is suppressed for the NE and Northern Mid Atlantic is because it has the Polar Vortex pretty far to the south sitting over the Great Lakes.
Both models agree that there is going to be a storm in this time frame..while one takes it up the coast into the NE ..the other keeps it south. So with such agreement at this point and time on a storm system it seems prudent to blend the model solutions together and put the above areas at a level 1 Alert!
Teleconnections are favorable with a negative AO as well as a negative NAO. Blocking is in place. 50/50 low is in place. PNA is switching to neutral to slightly positive…and the S/W is not going negatively tilted before it reaches Lousianna area.
Due to the above factors ..a Level 1 Alert is being issued to be on guard for the possibility of a significant winter weather event. Residents from the Southern Mid Atlantic to the Northeast should pay attention to the modeling in the days ahead!
If conditions as we get into closer range warrant an upgrade a statement will be issued at that time. Stay tuned for further updates on what could be the first significant storm of the 2010-11 winter season!