Saturday, July 31, 2010

July 31st Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature July 30th at KABE was 80 degrees. The departure on the day came in at negative 6.

Today once again will be another splendid day across the region. There may be some showers moving in across the western portions of the region and then by late tonight these showers will be moving towards the east and by after midnight it may be on the rainy side across alot of the region.

Temperatures today will be from the 60s north to the 80s south. There will be partly to mostly sunny skies until the showers start to spread into the region.

So if you been wanting a break from the heat that has been across the region ..today will be another day to relish and enjoy!

Invest 90 L And Other Hurricane Season Thoughts

There  has been  alot of talk around the  internet about the hurricane season in general and how it should pick up etc because of climo etc. So i want to shed a light into some of this from this perspective.

Eastern Atlantic Water Vapor (click here)

Water Vapor across this area basically shows the waves that are coming off the coast actually end up losing their lack and their luster. Why?

wm7shr

There is a good amount of shear around and north of the area where these waves are coming off and its basically acting like a shredder and shredding them apart. Then the way things have been going and the way things still look in the atlantic itself...

wv-l

Dry air covering the majority of the atlantic. However, these waves are staying generally south of the dry air. While this is true, the very fact that this dry air is to the waves immediate north it is still getting ingested into these systems. The area that is staying essentially out of harms way of this dry air is essentially the ITCZ but because this is still somewhat suppressed to the south it makes things alot harder to spin up. So these waves in the ITCZ can not develop unless they break off and gain latitude.
So along comes a wave like 90 L and this was part of the ITCZ and never broke away so it essentially stalled, slowed down and lost its steam. However...the wave you see here circled in black is not the same wave that was behind 90 L in the afternoon yesterday.

ea

If you go to the Eastern Atlantic WV and slow down the speed settings you will see that that wave actually got shredded apart and yet this is now another wave...
MJO is still in phase 3 and if it does go into the COD...this is not a good area for tropical storm development. The MJO models are actually all over on where this is going to go as some keep it in the COD, while others take it into phase 1 , while yet still others take it to phase 4 or 5 and even one takes it into Phase 8.
So right now we have the MJO that is unfavorable..
We have shear off the coast of Africa that is unfavorable
We have a ton of dry air in the Atlantic that is unfavorable
We have an ITCZ that is still somewhat suppressed...
So there has been reasons as to why the very memorable July has become not memorable. As July was expected pretty much from the pros to be like August. That did not happen. So even though climo suggests that the clock is ticking to August 1st... I think I would be a little wary and cautious to suggest just because of climo things will ramp up until we see some of the above cease to exist....
Again...not expecting any development any time soon with invest 90 L (if it can even be called an invest any longer) ...

Friday, July 30, 2010

July 30th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature July 29th was 88 degrees! This was a day that was above normal..however..while humid did not make it into the lower 90s as was anticipated by the NWS.

Today is going to be a mostly sunny day across the region with a wind out of the north and northwest delivering some very pleasant weather conditions across the region.

Highs today from the 60s north to the 80s south. This cooler weather will continue for the next several days and even become a little cooler over the weekend!

Thursday, July 29, 2010

July 29th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature July 28th @ KABE was 86 degrees. This was about two degrees above normal and fell in a positive departure range.

There is a cold front approaching the region. As of 03 Z this cold front was already approaching Western NY and NW PA. Showers and thunderstorms are out ahead of this front. The question becomes as to whether we see any severe weather today. Current thinking is that the front should be crossing the region between 12 Z and 18 Z. The timing of this front is in such that it would not be occurring during the time of the best day time heating. Also out ahead of this front currently … are showers and thunderstorms and a large area of cloudiness.

Position of the front as of 3 Z and cloudiness associated with it.

sat_sfc_map

90fwbg

Showers and thundershowers occurring :

RAD_MOS_STATE_NY_N0R_ANI

So it pretty much appears as if the bulk of the moisture is going to be moving thru between 12 z and 18 Z today. So because of this today pretty much looks like an isolated day for severe weather across SE PA, Southern NJ and points south. Showers and thunderstorms though can pretty much occur anywhere across the NE today along and ahead of the cold front but for the most part they will be non severe.

Highs today generally look to be in the 70s north to 80s to near 90 south.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

July 28th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature July 27th was 85 degrees. This was one degree above normal for this time of the year..however..with the overnight low we came in on a negative departure on the day.

A cold front is starting to work its way towards the region and as it does so some showers and thunderstorms will break out ahead of this front. So basically western PA and into Northern and Western area of the NE will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms will work there way east and begin to effect the rest of the region after midnight.

Temperatures today will be in the 70s north to lower 90s south. Also the humidity will be on the increase today across the region! However..it will be short lived!

Monday, July 26, 2010

July 27th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature July 26th at KABE was 83 degrees. This was actually a below normal day for this region and the first one in quite some time. The day indeed felt very pleasant.

Today is going to be another sunny and pleasant day with temperatures similar to yesterday with temperatures in the 70s north to 80’s south. There may be a few locations from southern NJ and points south where 90 or lower 90s could be possible.

It will get slightly more humid after today but it will be very brief before average to below average weather returns.

July 26th Daily Discussion

High temperature July 25th @ KABE was 86 degrees. Also recorded during a thunderstorm at KABE was a wind speed of 69 MPH. Unfortunately, this missed the part of town where I was at.

Today is going to be a much more pleasant day and the first day where the heat has officially been broken. Mostly sunny skies will pretty much be the rule across the region.

Temperatures will be in the 60s in parts of Maine to the 70s and 80’s elsewhere!

After the recent heat that we have gone thru this type of weather over the next several days into the beginning of August will feel very pleasant and a reminder that fall is not that far away!

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Is this Really Necessary?

post-12468-1280083334

post-12468-1280083408

post-12468-1280083435

Is this really necessary? A system that is clearly over land being labeled as an invest with 0% chance of development? Why the need to do something like this? Is it because they have gone for the hyperactive season so they have to give off a false perception of activity? This is a complete and utter JOKE.

Lightning Photos From July 23rd

These photos were from a storm on the night of the 23rd of July 2010. In Allentown itself we only received light rain but the light show was in the distance as the storm intensified south of Allentown PA.

004 _1__0001

004 _1__0002

July 25th Daily Weather Discussion

Today is going to be a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy day across the region with some left over showers and thundershowers early. Then later in the day there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms which some of these storms could become severe. This will be due to an advancing cold front and also an MCV that is developing and effecting Illinois/Indiana moving off to the East. This cold front will be responsible for breaking down the bermuda ridge that has been in place.

Temperatures today will be in the 70s to 80s from the North around Maine and across the central and western area of the Northeast. Further south and towards the coast from SNE and south temperatures will be in the 90s once again.

An interesting little tidbit…15 out of 24 days have had a reading of 90 or above in the month of July. Today should make day 16.

High temperature on the 24th @ KABE was 92 degrees.

July 25th Severe Weather Potential

A MCV presently effecting Illinois and Indiana will be progressing towards the east. This will be moving into and across the warm sector out ahead of the cold front and into an area with severe parameters such as CAPE of 1000-3000, There will also be sufficient shear with 30-40 knots + across the area. Sufficient lift as well of –2 to –6. The one thing that appears to be lacking on the GFS at least is mid level lapse rates are below 5.0.

12 Z ECM was not as high on the CAPE with the southern end only between 500-1000.

21 Z SREF also was not all that impressive on the severe weather .

00z GFS seems to be the most bullish on the severe with the parameters in place.

While its possible that the cloud cover and activity that is going thru in these early morning hours could potentially hinder severe weather..we have an advancing cold front. As usual this will be all about the timing of the passing of this cold front. The air out ahead of this front is quite hot and humid and the air behind it is less humid and basically closer to seasonal temperatures. So I am thinking that this alone should cause severe weather. Main primary threat will be damaging winds and the potential once again for a few tornado’s

725

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Bye Bye Bonnie!

Well, better late then never..NHC finally has acknowledged that Bonnie has become a remnant low..

WTNT43 KNHC 242034
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
DEGENERATED INTO AN AREA LOW PRESSURE.


Of course the real question from Real Wx Services is to NHC and those out there who consistently give R.W.S a hard time.Why forecast restrengthening for a system that was under 20-30 knots of shear? Why choose to side with the two models that support your thinking while the rest of guidance clearly says not happening?The final question is what effect did this have on the oil spill? A remnant low will have little to any effect just as Real Wx Services was saying!

July 24th Daily Weather Discussion

With Bonnie now winding down the daily weather discussion will once again return. When there is times of tropical weather or severe weather these priorities supercede the daily discussions.

July 23rd high temperature at ABE was 92 degrees!

Today’s weather phrase is Hot & Potentially Stormy.

Today will be a mostly cloudy day, though the sun can peek out from time to time with showers and thunderstorms possible across the area. Main area for severe weather will be from about N VA on northwards into Central NY and SNE. Main threat is wind damage and hail. An isolated tornado or two is also possible mainly across western areas.

Temperatures will be in the 70s north to near 100 south and with the heat index ..real feel will be in the 100-110 range.

Tropical Depression Bonnie

This will probably be the final update on Bonnie. Yesterday afternoon around 2 PM in the afternoon Bonnie had made first landfall in Southern Florida as a very MINIMAL tropical storm. The argument can be made that it probably was not a tropical storm at this point because as of the previous night RECON found little if any west winds. So there is a possibility that this was a TD at landfall.

Regardless it travelled across southern florida and has remerged back over the GOM. Now normally the GOM would cause a system to intensify. However, at this point and time the shear is so high across the GOM, that the shear and the ULL should continue to keep TD 3 in check.

wg8shrZ

Shear is currently 20-30 knots + across the system.

Admittedly TD 3 does look better tonight with convection blowing off but this convection is to the north of whatever circulation is left.

vis-l

wv-l

wv-l (1)

The visible shows whatever circulation is left to be naked with the convection to the north and as of the last Recon mission into this they were unable to find any west winds.

You can also see in the bottom image that the ULL that was off the SE coast keeping TD 3 in check is still keeping company with Bonnie. This also is providing dry air as well to its west which is also feeding into the circulation.

It looks as if 2nd Landfall should be somewhere along the eastern Lousianna Coast and that should be as either a TD (if NHC keeps it that way ) or as a remnant low or open trough.

As one can see there is not even that much moisture showing up on the radar out of the Southeast.

RAD_MOS_STATE_FL_N0R_ANI

So the convection is pretty much over all on the weak side..despite the water vapor image.  Of course any of the heavier thunderstorms will still contain gusty winds and heavy rains. However..if you live in the Southeast its pretty much anticipated.

This will be the last update on Bonnie unless somehow she were to defy the conditions set against any further development.

Severe Weather Potential July 24th

724

CAPE 1000-3000

LI –2 to –6 depending on location

Mid level Lapse rates :5.5-6.5

Shear: 30-40 knots

Temperatures in the 90s

Dewpoints in the 60s and 70s

Trigger: One vortmax in the afternoon & one vortmax in the evening.

Main threat should be damaging winds and hail.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Tropical Storm Bonnie?

Well I am not sure how to even start this discussion off. At 5 PM EST NHC puts across a message stating that RECON has not found the depression to be strengthening at all..then the next thing I know I am being told at around 6-6:30 PM Recon has found Tropical Storm force winds… and it was upgraded to Bonnie.

Regardless, Bonnie was born. However…Bonnie does not look to healthy right now and its track seems to be north of what NHC has it and looks to be taking aim on southern florida.

Over all i am quite surprised that this got upgraded. The pressure at 5 PM was 1006 and it was a Depression at that time. It only dropped 1 MB(1005) and then there after just one hour and 45 minutes later the pressure started to rise and has been rising ever since. Matter of fact recon could not even find the center when they made the first pass..Those same RECON obs then have found the pressure to be up to 1009 MBS. So i think they have been being rather generous with this system.  Never the less it will go down as Bonnie.

Now lets look at Bonnie in the latest visible and WV

vis-l

No thats not Bonnie back near PR…Bonnie is that little cloud Mass right near SF.

wv-l (1)

Convection pretty much dying out. Official forecast as of last forecast discussion was for this to go into the GOM. As it looks now..it appears it might not make it. ULL has been consistently to its west. Another ULL is to its east. We are about 30 minutes away from the NHC update.

Will we have Bonnie maintain status, strengthen or weaken on this next update? If one would judge by appearance , one would have to go with weakened perhaps to a Depression again.

ATM it appears as if Bonnie could make landfall in Southern Florida north of where NHC track lays. Regardless of whether it gets downgraded or not heavy rains and gusty  winds are going to be a concern in Southern Florida!

July 23rd Severe Weather Potential

723

CAPE 1000-2000

LI –2 to –4

Lapse rates 5.5-6.5

Shear 30-40 knots

Trigger: Warm front

Temperatures in the 90s

Dew points in the 60s and 70s

A warm front will be moving northward across the region today and this may act as a trigger to spark off some severe thunderstorms.

I am a little wary though on the severe chances today due to the fact that radar shows rain moving across the region now..

RAD_MOS_STATE_NY_N0R_ANI

This may cause clouds to linger longer across the area and too much subsidence left behind with a more stable atmosphere. Also currently there is decent cloud cover in place..

sat_sfc_map

So while issuing this outlook, keep in mind the possibility that these things could hinder severe weather. I think the main severe weather effect would be strong wind damage .

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Another Invest-98 L (A Race Against Time)

wv-l

Not going to go into to much detail on this invest above but if you go to the  GOM water vapor loop (click to your left) and click the little box at the top that says fronts and you will see how close this is getting to land. So this is very much a race against time..

post-12252-1279777040

The ASCAT pass above showed that this indeed has a LLC, unlike 97 ASCAT passes but what was still lacking was a westerly wind and without that you do not have a closed low.

This invest is in a more favorable environment then what 97 L is with less shear (5-10 knots) in an area of good convergence, decent divergence and its vorticity while a little elongated is much more bundled then 97 L.

Chances of this becoming a TD in the next 24 hours is 60 % but not quite sure if it will have enough time to get any higher then that…

Tropical Update …Part 1 -97 L

Alot of discussion in the late evening yesterday as to folks thinking that this was a Tropical Depression already and had a closed LLC. READERS be ware that just because there is a convection blow up does NOT mean there is a closed low. ASCAT passes at 3 Z and 4 Z did not show a closed low or an LLC. There could be one developing now albeit very weak but that will be discussed below.

GOES Satellite Data went down for sometime yesterday and it took some time for images to get updated and that is why this update is being posted at the time that it is. Never the less it contains alot of information in it.

Well after what has seemed like quite a lengthy time I have finally gotten some images to update...So lets take a look at what current conditions are like as of 6 Z...

shear

Starting off with the shear we are currently having westerly shear of 10-20 knots but we are extremely close to the 20 + shear zone. This is being created by the ULL to its NW .
Best convergence actually is to the North/Northeast of the system.

convergence

As far as upper level divergence is concerned it is right on the border of the greatest area of divergence which is immediately east of where as of 6 Z the invest was located.

divergence

Vorticity ,as of 6 Z the invest is in the greatest area of vorticity, however, it still remains stretched out and elongated.

vorticity

This is also seen on the water vapor image as its a very broad system.

wv-l

The water vapor loop also shows the dry air immediately east of the system and immediately west of the system. Dry air west of the system is being caused by the ULL.
Here is another image of the dry air ..

dry air

As you can see there is pretty much dry air in the path of this system as it moves off to the WNW.
There is evidence of a MLC but there still remains no clear evidence of anything other then a very weak LLC. The ULL is still in the vicinity and matter of fact the latest tropical discussion now mentions two ULL within the vicinity of 97 L.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 67W-74W DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR
27N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE S BAHAMA SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N57W. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.”

NHC DISCUSSION CLICK HERE

Shear tendency map shows shear increasing off to its NW and off to its SE. This is due to the two ULLs that 97 L is sandwiched between.

wg8sht

For a storm to be able to intensify you really do not want to see it in the position that it is in now. As long as that ULL stays nearby its going to continue to keep the system in check. You can tell looking at the Water Vapor that the shear is still having an effect on the system by stretching the clouds out and off to the North. Convection remains largely north and east of the center and if there is any indication of where the invest is the IR 2 Loop shows it well and shows a very weak LLC that is exposed and out ahead of the convection going along the border of Cuba...

WEAK LLC CLICK HERE

This also is not a good sign for the system to strengthen..
So there are multiple factors right now that are not too good for development with 97 L and will put the chances at developing to a TD in the next 24 hrs at 30 %

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

97 L Update! To Be or Not To Be is the Question!

wv-l 90fwbg

This system is essentially caught up with in the trough and the ULL and the convection you are seeing is actually being aided by the ULL. This convection is not coming with the system itself.
As of 15 Z there still is not even a surface reflection on the surface map.

Conditions are actually getting worse for this invest as I have pretty much been alluding to and expecting. This is one reason why it is not good to trust the models with development of these systems with the exception of the KING (ECM) ...
Shear has increased to 10-20 knots.

image (4)

The best convergence lies to the Northeast of the system

image (5)

The best divergence lies to the NE of the system..

image (6)

The system is outside of the best vorticity area and it is still elongated not pulling together..

image (7)

And last but not least is the dry air that is around and feeding into this system.

image (8)

All these things point to rather slow development, if any development. As long as the ULL continues to keep its association nearby 97 the higher shear will continue to influence this system along with the dry air. Once the ULL starts to withdraw from the system we will be switching from westerly shear to easterly shear which will continue to hinder development.

NHC has come down with there chance of development and it is now at 50%. They are starting to catch on. Reality of the situation is that this should only be at or about 20%.

July 21st Daily Weather Discussion

July 20th high temperature at KABE was 84 degrees. This was actually below normal for a high temperature.

Today is going to be a partly to mostly cloudy day with some shortwaves aloft and a approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will break out ahead of this front and with its passage which will not be until later in the evening towards midnight. Heavy rains with these storms along with damaging winds and hail & even an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out.

Temperatures will mainly be in the 70s to lower 80s north , 80s south with a few 90s possible. the higher temps will really depend on how much cloud cover is left over from precipitation moving thru parts of the region before sunrise.

Severe Potential July 21st

CAPE 1000-2000

LI –2 to –6

Lapse Rates: 6.0-6.5

Dewpoints 60s N to 70s S

Trigger: Cold front and shortwaves aloft

Shear 30-40 knots…

Precipitable Water Content is 1.5-1.75 inches so localized flooding within thunderstorms is possible..

Main threat large wind and hail with an isolated tornado or two possible.

721

97 L Update Forecasting Like It Is & Not What We Want!

Just came in from work and noticed we are at 70 % kind of scratching the head a bit and wondering why the raise to 70 % when it says the same thing that it said at 8 PM and that is that there is still no closed circulation.
I am going to take it even one step further and look at the latest HPC surface analysis and there is not even a surface reflection yet as of 03 Z...So we are still dealing with an open wave. This is basically what i thought i would be coming home to...

90fwbg

Anyways lets look at a few things tonight...
However..before we do I want to point out that this is in no way bittercasting or saying its not going to develop. Instead its looking at what is happening now instead of forecasting the future which is filled with alot of uncertainties. Its much more feasible to deal with what is occurring now...
So with that said here we go..

wv-l

On this water vapor image you are going to see several things were circled and printed.. The image came from here.. (click here)

The circle for 97 L might be a little too far east in all reality but you will notice that the ULL is still off to its NW and it is moving off to the SW. Pretty much earlier yesterday that i mentioned that the ULL was going to be a neighbor to 97 L for quite a bit of time. What this does is it serves to keep the higher shear always nearby and westerly shear across the northern half of the system. The next thing you will notice is the close proximity with land. Land interaction can sometimes cause a system to develop slowly and sometimes it can cause an interruption to development. The third thing to notice is on the western side of the invest is dry air and on the eastern side is dry air and i would imagine that what center there is is also digesting some dry air. The next thing to notice is the broadness of this system and how right next door on the western side after the dry air is another tropical wave.. So we still have two systems more or less sparring for dominance. The vorticity is still rather elongated and stretched out ..

wg8vor

The best divergence currently lies to the east northeast of the system..

wg8dvg

While the best convergence is also to its east..

wg8conv

The system is also surrounded on all sides in increasing shear

wg8sht

And here is the mid level shear

wg8midshr

This continues to be a system that has its best convection over to the east and looking at the latest water vapor that is also starting to get warmer cloud tops.
Now, switching over to the visible you also have what looks like clearing skies developing in between the convection to the east and the little bit that is west of the system.

vis-l

This is not indicative of an eye developing but rather i think more of an indication of the dry air making inroads. After all, we do not have a surface reflection, nor a closed low so it would not be an eye that would be developing. Just mentioning that in case someone would come out with it.
So, essentially right now i believe the convection is being aided by the ULL and the surface trough. This is not exactly the best environment for this system to grow and again i think any development will be rather slow. Chances of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next 24 hours are at about 30 %. Next 48 hours are at or about 40 %.

wg8dlm1
As far as movement is concerned a general west movement but it would not surprise me to see this go somewhat SW as well before heading back west..

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

July 20th Daily Discussion

High temperature the 19th of July was 90 degrees at KABE. There was some light rainfall today but the ABE area did not receive any severe weather. Most of the reports that came in today were in SE PA or further to the NE into SNE and Central NE.

Today is going to be a partly to mostly cloudy day once again. Though just like yesterday the sun can shine at times thru out the day. There is also a chance for showers and thunderstorms ..though not really expecting anything severe today.

Temperatures will be in the 70s north to 80s south and south of PA perhaps some lower 90s!

Invest 97 L- Tropical Update!

wv-l

The tale of three players!  Player #1 is the ULL in the blue circle. This has been responsible for strong shear to the north of 97 L. Upper level diffluence to the south of the center has been enhancing convection. Player #2 is the tropical wave in the orange circle. Player #3 is Invest 97 L. These are the three main features in this particular image.

CLICK HERE (click this to see these features in motion)

A couple things to notice just looking at the water vapor loop. First off we have a rather broad tropical wave. We have pretty much dry air that looks to be approaching towards the invest from the east. It also looks like there is some dry air trying to work down on the western side towards the south between the two tropical waves.

As of 03 Z there was two areas of vorticity and the vorticity area was stretched out and elongated.

image

Currently this is a two fisted system. Whenever you have two tropical waves in the vicinity of each other – majority of the times you have the two different waves competing with each other which causes them not to be able to bundle the energy, tighten up and consolidate into one area of vorticity. One usually ends up robbing the other of convective energy and sometimes they can even cancel each other out.

Shear as of 03 Z was not really a problem with this particular system. It was between 5 & 10 knots. The northern part of the system though is under more –about 10 + .

The best convergence and divergence lies to the ENE of the system as of 03Z.

I really do not think shear is presenting any type of problem at this point and time as far as development is concerned. I think the problems it is facing is three folded. First, the elongated vorticity. Second, is the proximity to land, thirdly is the space between the two tropical waves is not great enough.

As far as where this is going to go? I think it should continue to head on a mainly West track with perhaps a slight north wobble.

wg8dlm1

I also think that this is going to end up moving across Hispanola and continue on a WNW basis and end up in the GOM and make landfall somewhere between Southern Tx and Tampico. I do not think this is going to gain to much latitude due to the negative NAO. Negative NAO’s tend to favor the more southern track.

Intensity wise, at this point and time I put the chances of this becoming a tropical depression at about 20% over the next 48 hrs.