Well I am not sure how to even start this discussion off. At 5 PM EST NHC puts across a message stating that RECON has not found the depression to be strengthening at all..then the next thing I know I am being told at around 6-6:30 PM Recon has found Tropical Storm force winds… and it was upgraded to Bonnie.
Regardless, Bonnie was born. However…Bonnie does not look to healthy right now and its track seems to be north of what NHC has it and looks to be taking aim on southern florida.
Over all i am quite surprised that this got upgraded. The pressure at 5 PM was 1006 and it was a Depression at that time. It only dropped 1 MB(1005) and then there after just one hour and 45 minutes later the pressure started to rise and has been rising ever since. Matter of fact recon could not even find the center when they made the first pass..Those same RECON obs then have found the pressure to be up to 1009 MBS. So i think they have been being rather generous with this system. Never the less it will go down as Bonnie.
Now lets look at Bonnie in the latest visible and WV
No thats not Bonnie back near PR…Bonnie is that little cloud Mass right near SF.
Convection pretty much dying out. Official forecast as of last forecast discussion was for this to go into the GOM. As it looks now..it appears it might not make it. ULL has been consistently to its west. Another ULL is to its east. We are about 30 minutes away from the NHC update.
Will we have Bonnie maintain status, strengthen or weaken on this next update? If one would judge by appearance , one would have to go with weakened perhaps to a Depression again.
ATM it appears as if Bonnie could make landfall in Southern Florida north of where NHC track lays. Regardless of whether it gets downgraded or not heavy rains and gusty winds are going to be a concern in Southern Florida!
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