With just twelve days to the end of the month..and 42 days into the tropical season…the total named storms stand at 1. That was Alex. Alex happened when we were in Phase 2 of the Madden Julian Oscillation. We find ourselves in Phase 2 of the Madden Julian Oscillation once again as this chart clearly shows.
So does this mean that we could potentially be on the way to seeing a system develop into Bonnie? Well, the answer to this goes a little deeper then the MJO.If one were to look back at the time frame around Alex ..you would find that we had quite a few tropical waves that became invests but due to shear in place around the invests they really did not develop, with the exception of Alex and TD2.
With this MJO phase…despite it being in a favorable location we really have not been able to get any tropical waves to even be classified as invests. Dry air was not a problem back around and before Alex. So dry air at that time was not a culprit because it was not even a factor. However, I strongly think the shear was and just climatology at that time. However, this go around SAL/dry air has become an issue and shear continues to be an issue, especially off the coast of Africa.
So lets take a look around the tropics today. On our tour of the tropics the first place we are going to look at is the Atlantic.
When we look at the wide view of the Atlantic …there are three features that stand out. The first feature is the orange color in the water vapor and that represents the SAL invasion. The second feature that stands out is the Upper level low that is to the north of the Antille Islands. The third thing that stands out (you may have to put the image into motion is the ULL near Florida. Other then these two features the Atlantic is quiet.
Next stop is the Gulf Of Mexico!
As you can see in the GOM there is nothing going on as far as tropical is concerned and around Southern Tx you can also see some dry air in that region of the GOM waters.
The next stop along the tour of the tropics is going to be the eastern Atlantic which will also show the African coast.
Here we see some waves coming off the coast of Africa. However, if you put this image into motion for the most part you can see these waves are basically being shredded apart. You can also see some dry air across the region as well . The following two images are going to show why these waves are getting ripped apart.
The above image is the SAL. This is actually the second episode of what should be three episodes of SAL. The third one you can actually see back across Africa. This SAL will not let up as long as the 500mb heights remain extremely high over Africa and Southern Europe. However, the SAL is not the only concern on this end..
The increase in shear is also a high concern across this part of the Atlantic. So as you can see there are two main factors in place on this side of the Atlantic. SAL & shear increasing.
This brings us to the final part of the tropics which would be the Caribbean.
The area circled in yellow is R.W.S Area of Interest since yesterday afternoon. At the moment this AOI is not looking all that well and is surrounded by dry air. Another potential problem is its proximity to land and also the influence of the TUTT or ULL. If it is able to survive these factors and make it into the Caribbean then there is a chance that this could actually develop with the MJO being favorable.However, at this point and time conditions and upper level winds are not really favorable for any type of development.
So that wraps up your tour around the tropics and other then the R.W.S AOI ..the tropics are rather quiet and uneventful. Outside of the AOI above ..the tropics should continue to remain on the quiet side but we will continue to track any tropical waves and highlight potential development AOI’S.
Look for this to be updated later tonight or Monday night if conditions warrant it.
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