Friday, July 16, 2010

Lets Change Gears over to Severe. Is it possible?

716

This is the zone that I have decided to go with for the chances of severe weather. However..let me say straight from the start that i am not to keen on severe weather today.

First off we are dealing with some weak lapse rates around 5.5-6.0 . Second shear looks to be only around 30 KT. Third looking at the 700 mb RH it looks to be between about 70-90 %.. I would rather like to see that more above 90 instead of below. CAPE is rather marginal at 1000 roughly and LI is between –2-4.

Perhaps the most important though is if you look at this water vapor and zoom in you can actually see some dry air and subsidence across parts of the area..Click where it says water vapor to view it.

Temperatures will be on the warm side and there is a cold front coming that could serve as a trigger but this front looks to cross sometime in the evening and the air behind the front is not really any different then the air ahead of the front

So all this put together spells out the chance of severe weather but more of an isolated severe event then a concentrated wide spread area.

No comments:

Post a Comment