Action in the tropics? Or False Perceptions?

Do we really have action in the tropics or are we once again looking at some false perceptions? Well in order to answer this question lets look at what is happening.

 

First off the above is the 8 PM EST time update for July 15th. This does indeed give off the appearance of becoming more active. Lets see what they say about this area in the Caribbean first.

2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO

Notice a couple important items in that little discussion of theirs. First off notice the words IF ANY in reference to development. Furthermore notice how it also says that it is interacting with an Upper Level Trough.

Now lets look at a water vapor shot of the area.

Ok so looking at the water vapor nothing really stands out in the caribbean that is eye catching. Lets look at the visible..perhaps we can see something there..

Now on this image some things become a bit clearer. We can see just how close this is to land. Now which direction did NHC say that this system was moving? Yeah you read that it was moving westwards. So with the close proximity to land already…and moving westwards…what chance does this system really have at developing? Quite honestly this area should not even be highlighted as a chance of development and this is just being based on their words of IF ANY and the proximity to land and its direction.

Now what about the other area that is highlighted?

Not really any convection associated with this wave..and the wave is also pretty much surrounded by some dry air And as you can see in this image its also in an area of increasing shear.

The environment that is around this second system is quite hostile right now. So at this point and time, this system should have about a 0 % chance of developing.

This is not to say that this system once it moves further to the west could not develop but it would have to go thru some awful dry air  and be able to survive that dry air.

So it appears that neither one of these systems really has a chance to develop. The first one due to the direction and the proximity to land and the second due to the shear and dry air and present environment.

I have also been trying to figure out why NHC this year has been highlighting systems for chance of development that are so close to land…How much sense does that make? Now i could understand if the system was already a depression but we are not even talking about invests here…just weak open waves!