A MCV presently effecting Illinois and Indiana will be progressing towards the east. This will be moving into and across the warm sector out ahead of the cold front and into an area with severe parameters such as CAPE of 1000-3000, There will also be sufficient shear with 30-40 knots + across the area. Sufficient lift as well of –2 to –6. The one thing that appears to be lacking on the GFS at least is mid level lapse rates are below 5.0.
12 Z ECM was not as high on the CAPE with the southern end only between 500-1000.
21 Z SREF also was not all that impressive on the severe weather .
00z GFS seems to be the most bullish on the severe with the parameters in place.
While its possible that the cloud cover and activity that is going thru in these early morning hours could potentially hinder severe weather..we have an advancing cold front. As usual this will be all about the timing of the passing of this cold front. The air out ahead of this front is quite hot and humid and the air behind it is less humid and basically closer to seasonal temperatures. So I am thinking that this alone should cause severe weather. Main primary threat will be damaging winds and the potential once again for a few tornado’s
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