The tale of three players! Player #1 is the ULL in the blue circle. This has been responsible for strong shear to the north of 97 L. Upper level diffluence to the south of the center has been enhancing convection. Player #2 is the tropical wave in the orange circle. Player #3 is Invest 97 L. These are the three main features in this particular image.
CLICK HERE (click this to see these features in motion)
A couple things to notice just looking at the water vapor loop. First off we have a rather broad tropical wave. We have pretty much dry air that looks to be approaching towards the invest from the east. It also looks like there is some dry air trying to work down on the western side towards the south between the two tropical waves.
As of 03 Z there was two areas of vorticity and the vorticity area was stretched out and elongated.
Currently this is a two fisted system. Whenever you have two tropical waves in the vicinity of each other – majority of the times you have the two different waves competing with each other which causes them not to be able to bundle the energy, tighten up and consolidate into one area of vorticity. One usually ends up robbing the other of convective energy and sometimes they can even cancel each other out.
Shear as of 03 Z was not really a problem with this particular system. It was between 5 & 10 knots. The northern part of the system though is under more –about 10 + .
The best convergence and divergence lies to the ENE of the system as of 03Z.
I really do not think shear is presenting any type of problem at this point and time as far as development is concerned. I think the problems it is facing is three folded. First, the elongated vorticity. Second, is the proximity to land, thirdly is the space between the two tropical waves is not great enough.
As far as where this is going to go? I think it should continue to head on a mainly West track with perhaps a slight north wobble.
I also think that this is going to end up moving across Hispanola and continue on a WNW basis and end up in the GOM and make landfall somewhere between Southern Tx and Tampico. I do not think this is going to gain to much latitude due to the negative NAO. Negative NAO’s tend to favor the more southern track.
Intensity wise, at this point and time I put the chances of this becoming a tropical depression at about 20% over the next 48 hrs.