This will probably be the final update on Bonnie. Yesterday afternoon around 2 PM in the afternoon Bonnie had made first landfall in Southern Florida as a very MINIMAL tropical storm. The argument can be made that it probably was not a tropical storm at this point because as of the previous night RECON found little if any west winds. So there is a possibility that this was a TD at landfall.
Regardless it travelled across southern florida and has remerged back over the GOM. Now normally the GOM would cause a system to intensify. However, at this point and time the shear is so high across the GOM, that the shear and the ULL should continue to keep TD 3 in check.
Shear is currently 20-30 knots + across the system.
Admittedly TD 3 does look better tonight with convection blowing off but this convection is to the north of whatever circulation is left.
The visible shows whatever circulation is left to be naked with the convection to the north and as of the last Recon mission into this they were unable to find any west winds.
You can also see in the bottom image that the ULL that was off the SE coast keeping TD 3 in check is still keeping company with Bonnie. This also is providing dry air as well to its west which is also feeding into the circulation.
It looks as if 2nd Landfall should be somewhere along the eastern Lousianna Coast and that should be as either a TD (if NHC keeps it that way ) or as a remnant low or open trough.
As one can see there is not even that much moisture showing up on the radar out of the Southeast.
So the convection is pretty much over all on the weak side..despite the water vapor image. Of course any of the heavier thunderstorms will still contain gusty winds and heavy rains. However..if you live in the Southeast its pretty much anticipated.
This will be the last update on Bonnie unless somehow she were to defy the conditions set against any further development.
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