Lately my words have been getting twisted around and twisted around pretty badly. I have not determined whether this is on purpose or if its just a matter of misunderstanding of a persons words.
Recently I have made a discussion in regards to Hurricane Season 2010 called What the Heck is going on. This discussion pointed out the reasons that I feel pertain as to why the season has been so slow. This discussion apparently hit the nerves of some individuals. So i feel the need to clarify some things.
First and foremost, in reference to the only Hurricane of 2010 to date. I had never denied Alex happening..if that was the case then there would not have been a forecast issued for Alex. What i did deny when Alex was still an invest was the time frame of which the GFDL & HWRF were showing him becoming a Tropical Storm. I pointed out that it was not going to happen when those models said it would happen and the end result is that it occurred AFTER the time frame those models suggested.
Second thing I want to clarify is I have not ever said that any seasonal forecast for 2010 was going to bust. To say something like that at this point and time would be faulty due to the fact that we are at the mid July point. What i did say is that the forecasts that are calling for 2010 to out do 2005 or the forecasts that are calling for 20 + storms are currently looking like they are headed for or in trouble. There is a difference between busting and being in trouble of busting. A concept that some have to understand.
Third thing i need to clarify is not at one time have i ever debated the Daily N Atlantic ACE Index. I have rarely discussed N Atlantic ACE. There is no debate that the N ATL ACE would be above normal right now because of the fact that Alex happened! However, I have had a lot of discussion about the Northern Hemisphere ACE which includes the Atlantic basin and how the Northern Hemisphere ACE has a high correlation over the last 12 years to the Southern Hemisphere ACE. Stating that the Southern Hemisphere ACE was near normal so with that correlation would lead to the Northern Hemisphere ACE being near normal. There is no changes in these personal thoughts.
Finally, the conditions that I pointed out as hindering development are very real conditions, They are and were current observations from real time data. They are not projections. Too many projections do not come to pass and they become very unreliable.
So lets once again look at some of these current conditions.
First off lets look at a water vapor of dry air
Also on that image can be seen the expansiveness of the Subtropical high and so there is no mistaking it..You can also see it on the 00z ECM initialization
Now the next important factor is the shear. The argument has been presented that shear is near or below normal compared to climate values. While this is a true statement..the fact that shear is increasing in practically all areas that are important for tropical cyclones to develop is the more important of the two sides. So lets look at the shear images.
Click on images to enlarge them. But what about towards Africa?
There is also the matter of the ITCZ is suppressed to the south. As mentioned last night this is more then likely due to the strength of the subtropical Azores High which was forecasted to be less of a problem for hurricane season because of a pattern that was in place for the spring months. (according to Gray)
There is some danger when one assumes that a pattern in place during a transitional time for patterns to change (spring) is going to stay the same as obviously the result starting in June is the opposite of what occurred in April and May.
These are essentially all the current developments that have persisted over the last week or two that have been hindering development of systems. The images above tell the story and the story they tell is one that supports my thinking at this moment based on current conditions and conditions expected over the next 7-10 days.
Some other factors which are facts that can not be denied in addition to the above factors.
1. We have a strong negative Eastern based QBO at or about –25 with the last reading in June.
2. Fact we are at a 30 yr record low Global ACE.
3. Northern Hemisphere ACE is currently below normal
4. To go along with #2
July 15: If no additional ACE occurred in July, the 24-month global ACE total would be 1095 compared to last month at 1173. The previous 30-year low was 1091 set recently in September 2009. No lower values exist during the past 30-years.
Credit goes to Ryan Maue for the above #4
5. E PAC is more active then the Atlantic so far 2010. Quite the opposite of what was anticipated.
As stated these are the current conditions now and the conditions that should continue to effect development over the next 7-10 days. Does this mean that conditions can not change? No. These conditions can indeed change. However, can anyone say with 100% certainty that they will change? Again the answer is no.
Between now and then end of the month I am anticipating at least two more SAL outbreaks. Time will tell if that indeed materializes.
Real Wx Services has since its concept always gathered some that would constantly try to belittle or take out of context forecasts, thoughts and discussions. It is something that I as leader and founder have dealt with. And it is something that I refuse to set back this team.
We are made up of different individuals with different experience levels but we share one common goal and that is to keep emotions out of the forecasting discussions. In other words we can not and will not push aside what is presently happening just because we are Tropical Weather Enthusiasts and issued a above normal season. If 2010 ends up normal or below normal our forecast would bust as well. This is something we know and realize.
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