This system is essentially caught up with in the trough and the ULL and the convection you are seeing is actually being aided by the ULL. This convection is not coming with the system itself.
As of 15 Z there still is not even a surface reflection on the surface map.
Conditions are actually getting worse for this invest as I have pretty much been alluding to and expecting. This is one reason why it is not good to trust the models with development of these systems with the exception of the KING (ECM) ...
Shear has increased to 10-20 knots.
The best convergence lies to the Northeast of the system
The best divergence lies to the NE of the system..
The system is outside of the best vorticity area and it is still elongated not pulling together..
And last but not least is the dry air that is around and feeding into this system.
All these things point to rather slow development, if any development. As long as the ULL continues to keep its association nearby 97 the higher shear will continue to influence this system along with the dry air. Once the ULL starts to withdraw from the system we will be switching from westerly shear to easterly shear which will continue to hinder development.
NHC has come down with there chance of development and it is now at 50%. They are starting to catch on. Reality of the situation is that this should only be at or about 20%.
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