Wednesday, July 21, 2010

97 L Update Forecasting Like It Is & Not What We Want!

Just came in from work and noticed we are at 70 % kind of scratching the head a bit and wondering why the raise to 70 % when it says the same thing that it said at 8 PM and that is that there is still no closed circulation.
I am going to take it even one step further and look at the latest HPC surface analysis and there is not even a surface reflection yet as of 03 Z...So we are still dealing with an open wave. This is basically what i thought i would be coming home to...

90fwbg

Anyways lets look at a few things tonight...
However..before we do I want to point out that this is in no way bittercasting or saying its not going to develop. Instead its looking at what is happening now instead of forecasting the future which is filled with alot of uncertainties. Its much more feasible to deal with what is occurring now...
So with that said here we go..

wv-l

On this water vapor image you are going to see several things were circled and printed.. The image came from here.. (click here)

The circle for 97 L might be a little too far east in all reality but you will notice that the ULL is still off to its NW and it is moving off to the SW. Pretty much earlier yesterday that i mentioned that the ULL was going to be a neighbor to 97 L for quite a bit of time. What this does is it serves to keep the higher shear always nearby and westerly shear across the northern half of the system. The next thing you will notice is the close proximity with land. Land interaction can sometimes cause a system to develop slowly and sometimes it can cause an interruption to development. The third thing to notice is on the western side of the invest is dry air and on the eastern side is dry air and i would imagine that what center there is is also digesting some dry air. The next thing to notice is the broadness of this system and how right next door on the western side after the dry air is another tropical wave.. So we still have two systems more or less sparring for dominance. The vorticity is still rather elongated and stretched out ..

wg8vor

The best divergence currently lies to the east northeast of the system..

wg8dvg

While the best convergence is also to its east..

wg8conv

The system is also surrounded on all sides in increasing shear

wg8sht

And here is the mid level shear

wg8midshr

This continues to be a system that has its best convection over to the east and looking at the latest water vapor that is also starting to get warmer cloud tops.
Now, switching over to the visible you also have what looks like clearing skies developing in between the convection to the east and the little bit that is west of the system.

vis-l

This is not indicative of an eye developing but rather i think more of an indication of the dry air making inroads. After all, we do not have a surface reflection, nor a closed low so it would not be an eye that would be developing. Just mentioning that in case someone would come out with it.
So, essentially right now i believe the convection is being aided by the ULL and the surface trough. This is not exactly the best environment for this system to grow and again i think any development will be rather slow. Chances of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next 24 hours are at about 30 %. Next 48 hours are at or about 40 %.

wg8dlm1
As far as movement is concerned a general west movement but it would not surprise me to see this go somewhat SW as well before heading back west..

No comments:

Post a Comment